Before I get into the system the GFS has coming through in the first few days of April, I'm gonna deal the finishing blow on this March 5 gustnado. I took a grab from a video I took when the circulation was on the ground:
I tried to circle the area of what I thought was rotation in the cloud base, but because it's not a very clear grab I can't even tell for sure if it was even an area of rotation although at the time it was pretty convincing. I guess I'm counting it as a gustnado/downburst even though part of me is screaming it's a landspout. Another interesting point is it's a blurry image but notice how there are a few other apparent circulations on the radar. Right before this there was a more pronounced one but I guess I didn't get a picture of that. Oh well, it was a good first chase.
Ok now for that too-good-to-be-true system the GFS is putting out around April 1-3. I've been watching the models for this time period for a while now and although it seems to have some pretty good consistency, I'm still a little wary. It seems like every other run the GFS pushes an arctic air mass down along the front range and into kansas which pretty much kills all severe potential all the way down until southern Texas, which is way out of range for me. Assuming the recent runs hold true and this arctic air doesn't push that far south, then there is a high probablity that I will be chasing this system. It looks as if it's trying to put a tornadic set up along southern kansas which would most likely be my limit distance-wise. My only concern is it's only putting around 500-1000 CAPE in that area but massive amounts of CIN, but I'm guessing the CAPE values will go up substantially in the next few runs. Other than that, everything is lining up. It looks like there will be some juicy S/SE flow in that area supporting high 60 dewpoints (which will probably drop), some amazing wind shear, and temps around 80. So for now it's a yes but that might change. Another factor that might go into my decision is I'm getting back from vacation on April 1st so I wouldn't get much down time before I would have to head out again.
I guess I'll mention the massive amounts of CAPE (2000-3000) the GFS has been putting in central/southern Texas but because there's no way I'm going to be willing to drive that far, I don't want to drool over something that I can't chase.
When the GFS gets within 10 days of this system then I'll start posting some screens but for now I'm leaving it at that. Even If I end up not chasing this set up it's still a good sign that the season is finally starting to heat up!
Here's some pictures from the sunset from the March 5 chase, definately something I don't get to see here in Colorado.
3 months ago