Starting tomorrow, I will be chasing what looks to be a potential three day severe event throughout Colorado. Sunday might be a no-go because of the deadly cap/EML, but it looks like at least Saturday and Monday are pretty much set in stone. I'm so excited you don't even know...
Oh so beautiful...30% hatched peeping into Eastern Colorado
Now, I do realize that the 30% is for the expected upscale growth to an MCS for late evening/early nighttime, but I can't help but to imagine imbedded supercells or a tail end charlie based off of the forecasted hodographs. Not only this, but it looks like tornadoes are possible along the front range as the storms first develop.
Western Kansas hodograph as the MCS develops
THE EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF DUAL/LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/ASSOCIATED DPVA AND THE INCREASING UPSLOPE TRAJECTORIES WILL LIKELY SUPPORT INITIAL DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE CO FRONT RANGE...WITH ANOTHER/SOMEWHAT SEPARATE FOCUS FOR INITIAL DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EASTERN WY/SOUTHEAST MT AND PERHAPS THE BLACK HILLS BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. IN EACH OF THESE AREAS...VEERING WIND PROFILES WILL AND MODEST BUOYANCY/STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT INITIAL MODAL SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.
I think the SPC is being a bit generous with the initial tornado forecast based off of what I'm seeing with the NAM, but if the GFS verifies then their wording could very well be qualified. According to the NAM, substantial shear doesn't show up until around 00z when everything has already moved onto the Eastern Plains. Still, no matter what, I have confidence that Colorado will put on an impressive show tomorrow.
An initial target area would be a La Junta/Lamar/Punkin Center triangle with the southern edge being the primary focus for initial development around 21z.
I won't (generically) forecast for Sunday or Monday until about 24 hours in advance due to capping concerns. However, if the cap can weaken a bit more then we will be in business.