High Based Colorado Supercell- June 8

It's been a while since I've posted pictures or done any formal chase reports, so I'll try and get on that soon.  Until I can do that, this is what the supercell east of the Denver metro area looked like on June 8th.

I'll be out chasing this Thursday and Friday so look for some posts on those days as well.  Looks like the Colorado (non-tornadic) supercell season finally kicked in!  :D

Ben

Colorado FAIL - 6/11

FAIL!

Slightly more detailed post coming later.

Ben

Chasing Marathon 6/11-6/13

I think my last post slandering Colorado's severe weather season scared Ma Nature into throwing out some decent looking chase days.

Starting tomorrow, I will be chasing what looks to be a potential three day severe event throughout Colorado.  Sunday might be a no-go because of the deadly cap/EML, but it looks like at least Saturday and Monday are pretty much set in stone.  I'm so excited you don't even know...

Oh so beautiful...30% hatched peeping into Eastern Colorado

Now, I do realize that the 30% is for the expected upscale growth to an MCS for late evening/early nighttime, but I can't help but to imagine imbedded supercells or a tail end charlie based off of the forecasted hodographs.  Not only this, but it looks like tornadoes are possible along the front range as the storms first develop.

Western Kansas hodograph as the MCS develops

THE EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF DUAL/LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
   TROUGHS/ASSOCIATED DPVA AND THE INCREASING UPSLOPE TRAJECTORIES WILL
   LIKELY SUPPORT INITIAL DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE CO
   FRONT RANGE...WITH ANOTHER/SOMEWHAT SEPARATE FOCUS FOR INITIAL DEEP
   CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EASTERN WY/SOUTHEAST MT AND PERHAPS
   THE BLACK HILLS BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. IN EACH OF
   THESE AREAS...VEERING WIND PROFILES WILL AND MODEST BUOYANCY/STEEP
   LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT INITIAL MODAL SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE
   HAIL AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.

I think the SPC is being a bit generous with the initial tornado forecast based off of what I'm seeing with the NAM, but if the GFS verifies then their wording could very well be qualified.  According to the NAM, substantial shear doesn't show up until around 00z when everything has already moved onto the Eastern Plains.  Still, no matter what, I have confidence that Colorado will put on an impressive show tomorrow.

An initial target area would be a La Junta/Lamar/Punkin Center triangle with the southern edge being the primary focus for initial development around 21z.  

I won't (generically) forecast for Sunday or Monday until about 24 hours in advance due to capping concerns.    However, if the cap can weaken a bit more then we will be in business.

Ben

You Can't Win if You Don't Play - Colorado 2011

The premise of this post: This severe season is a complete joke for the entire state of Colorado.  However, it has taught me a lot about chasing and myself and I wouldn't trade it for anything.  Except maybe a few tornadoes.

Right now, we are in the peak of the severe weather season for Colorado...but if one were to look at the statistics they would not realize this.

Total Colorado severe reports: 56
Tornado Reports: 10
Hail Reports: 37
Wind Reports: 9

Don't let those tornado reports fool you - each and every one of those were landspouts.  Yes, that means there has been no successfully tornadic supercell in Colorado thus far.

The future looks just as bleak.  All hope the GFS wants to shine upon Colorado is shunted by the more conservative NAM with each and every run.  It looks like a legitimate possibility that the peak severe season for Colorado could look like the average late March Colorado storm season.

And with all of that now on the table, I just want to say that I've made the best of what Ma Nature has thrown at us.  On multiple occasions I was prevented from chasing the main setup in Kansas/Oklahoma and instead dug for gold in the copper fields of the Colorado last-pick play.  On one or two of these occasions I was successful and bagged gorgeous supercells as a result of dedication and patience in regards to my circumstances.

Nothing comes easy with chasing, and last year (2010) failed to show me that.  I was handed everything: from 10+ decent Colorado setups spread out over three months to tornado after tornado in favorable terrain and operable road networks - everything came easily.  Life searches for balances, and I'm afraid my last season in Colorado was that balance.

Looking at the somewhat depressing, somewhat gleeful future of this season, there is a chance at a supercell up in Southeastern Wyoming tomorrow afternoon.  You can't win if you don't play, so you'll see me up there. I'll keep on digging the gold from the copper fields until a tornado wipes out all of my so-called copper fields.

I'll be posting a more science oriented post on what I've noticed went wrong this season for Colorado sometime in the future.  I might even consider posting a forecast for tomorrow if I'm feeling risky enough to jinx it.

Ben

June 1 Pre-Day Forecast

As of now, I'll be heading out for yet another Western Kansas/Eastern Colorado/Southwest Nebraska chase tomorrow.  There's been talk that this should be a marginal day (tornado wise), but I beg to differ.  For the past two runs, both the NAM and GFS have been showing favorable shear and instability for a couple supercells in West/Southwest Kansas and Southwest Nebraska with decent tornado potential.  The SPC has also changed their forecast to include a 5% tornado risk in Northwest Kansas/Southwest Nebraska, so I think we're right on track for an amazing supercell or two tomorrow.  I expect this 5% to extend further into Southwest Kansas with further outlooks as well.

The plan right now is to meet up with my chasing team around 10 oclock and head east on I-70 out to near Goodland then adjust from there as necessary.  Both the northern play and the southern play look decent, so it's a tough call to make 24 hours out.

SREF Precip. blobs are a convincing factor for the northern play...

NAM Precip. blobs make it a tough call...

GFS Precip. blob screams to stay on I-70...

If I have time, I'll try and post a morning-of forecast tomorrow.  If not, good luck and I hope to see some fellow chasers out there!

And here's to my first tornado of the season...

Cheers,

Ben