Upslope Chaos

Pictures of 2010-2011 Revisited

2011-12-01T23:30:00.000-07:00

The 2011 severe weather season was largely a let down in Colorado this year, so many of these pictures are still from 2010. However, I did add a few favorites of mine from 2011. I kind of messed these up because of the fact that this was my first season with my new camera, and I accidentally left the on-camera photo editing options on the standard setting. Ugh, oh well. They still came out pretty well!

Enjoy.

Ben Toms

11/7/2011 Would-Be Forecast

2011-11-06T23:05:00.001-07:00

College and a lack of a car are keeping me from chasing the potentially epic set up tomorrow, but here's a forecast of what I'd be looking at if I had been able to make the venture to the southwest Texas/Oklahoma border.

These are the main three maps I would like to look at for this particular set up. From what I've seen over the past few events (some a lack thereof), moisture is one of the key factors in fall events. In the past, we've had a lack of moisture and therefore a lack of instability, but this time we have ample amounts of it. Dews in the low to mid 60's will lead to CAPE values in the 1000+ range with some areas peaking a tad over 2000 J/Kg around 3 P.M.. Layered on top of this moisture is helicity in the 200-300 range which is also adequate for rotating updrafts and, assuming other ingredients are in place, tornadoes. I feel that it is appropriate to mention tornadoes in this forecast because of the fact that the shear (both speed and directional), moisture, instability, and LCLs all qualify this possibility. The SPC even mentions strong tornadoes in their day before afternoon forecast.

I won't go much more in depth than this because I won't be able to chase tomorrow, but basically, in my opinion, we are looking at a fairly potent system that will kick off strong supercells tomorrow around the southwest border of Oklahoma and Texas with some tornadoes possible. Now, since I can't chase this, I've been focusing my attention on the significant rainfall that will affect my location starting tomorrow afternoon. According to the NAM, Lawrence is pegged to get 2+ inches of rainfall by Tuesday night with localized amounts reaching 3+. Although most of the rain will be steady, there is potential for embedded thunderstorms so these numbers are just generic ranges - some places could be well below or well above these numbers.

Most of Kansas has been in a drought for the past few months, so this significant rainfall event will help loosen the grip of that drought along with helping my worst-of-my-lifetime allergies. Overall, I'm just as excited about the potential of 3+ inches of rainfall in a 24 hour period as I am the prospect of tornadoes in Oklahoma. Being that I've lived in Colorado my whole life, I've never experienced an event like that so it should be something new and interesting.

Good luck and have fun to anybody chasing the storms tomorrow in Oklahoma and Texas, and to everybody in Kansas...stay dry! (Isn't it nice to finally hear that??)

Until next time,

Ben

Tuscaloosa: Just Unlucky or the Result of Microscale Changes

2011-09-07T22:38:00.000-06:00

Video of the infamous Tuscaloosa/Birmingham tornado developing just outside of Tuscaloosa

As I move into a more serious, vigorous education environment, I am finding myself asking more and more questions relating to my studies - most of which have been pointed towards my study of Atmospheric Sciences. Throughout the first few weeks of my college experience, my Atmo 101 class had been touching on the more generic concepts of meteorology such as humidity, heat, dew points, and the related concepts. It amazes me that even such basic of knowledge can spur some of the deepest thought I've ever experienced towards my passion. Due to this increase in thought, I've started a list of questions that I believe are either very difficult, or even impossible, to answer given our current understanding of tornadogenisis. Throughout the next few months, and probably even years, I will be exploring many of these topics through observational studies and suggestions. However, to start with I will merely throw out my first major questions and generic comments on both.

Question 1: How significant of a factor do localized heat islands and moisture pools (both due to a very localized change in surface material/various other influencing factors) have on tornadogenisis and/or tornado strength?

Comments: I can come up with multiple instances where I have seen videos of tornadoes either strengthening or dissipating entirely when coming in contact with a new surface environment - the Tuscaloosa/Birmingham tornado being the most extreme. Yes, it is well known this tornado was on the ground for a significant duration before it impacted the city of Tuscaloosa, but when watching the provided video one can not help but stop and think: was it simply terrible luck that the tornado developed as it did as it neared the city, or was there some other factor that came into play? Yet another instance of this, but one I am not as familiar with, is the infamous 1999 Moore F5. I have watched every video I can find of this event, and my suggestion that various, very localized factors may have had a play in this event, as well. The tornado was visibly of strong to violent nature before it impacted the Oklahoma City metro area, but there was a marked increase in width and apparent strength as it neared the city. Obviously, no conclusions can be made with the given information, which is why I have placed this on my list of questions. I can't help but to imagine that even a subtle difference in dew point/ temperature could have led to these apparent increases in tornado strength.

Question: How does large to extremely large hail production in a supercell thunderstorm affect tornadogenisis?

Comments: Unfortunately, I couldn't scrounge up the video I wanted to use to support this question, but I think most knowledgeable chasers and meteorologists will know the days I am referring to. Before I get into my comments, I would like to suggest that more research needs to be done to understand these events entirely when comparing them to my question.

In September 2010, a moderately potent system kicked across Mid/Eastern Kansas and sparked off numerous raging supercells, most of which sported extremely large hail and violent surface based rotation. However, given the parameters and strength of the storms, the significance of these tornadoes was seemingly under par. Why? A suggestion would be that the required energy to keep these hail stones aloft along with the required energy to change the liquid precipitation into ice would pull from the storm's energy needed to produce a tornado. Assuming it takes an exponential amount of energy to maintain the buoyancy of a given hail stone as it increases with size, the production of a copious amount of extremely large hail would require a significant amount of energy output from the storm. This is not the only instance of this occurring, but it is the best example to use for the purposes of these comments. Many more events of similar nature can be observed on a multiple-per-year basis.

Many significant hail events go without tornado reports, and visa versa; however, that is not to say they can not go together. This is merely an observation of the generic trend of severe weather events.

These are mere excerpts of the detailed analysis that must go into the answering process of these questions, but that is all it is meant to be - at least for now. The questions are meant to be food for thought, and hopefully a trigger for the expansion of our knowledge of tornadogenisis at some point in the future.

Ben

Pre-Day Forecast #2

2011-08-09T01:31:00.000-06:00

See my previous post for an actual forecast for tomorrow.

Let it be known: If a morning supercell goes up over NE Colorado, I saw it, and thought of chasing it, but was too lazy to get out of bed at 7 A.M. to get to Sterling in time to see it. Maybe the WRF, SREF, and NAM are all going crazy on this one, but it looks like a morning supercell in Northeast Colorado is a possibility. The problem is I don't see any upper level support of any kind to promote this development - so I'm leaning towards this being a fib - but with upslope flow in Colorado anything is possible.

Ben

8/9 Pre-Day Forecast

2011-08-08T15:17:00.000-06:00

Tomorrow looks to be a decent day for supercells across the Cheyenne Ridge/Northeast Colorado plains. Unseasonably strong shear along with moderate instability will overlap to create conditions favorable for severe, rotating storms. The tornado potential looks low due to the sky high LCLS, but I'll take a few early August supercells no problemo.

The above images display the shear/instability values at around 3 P.M.. I won't nitpick the other ingredients seeing how this is just a "hold off the SDS until September" kind of chase, but everything looks pretty solid for a High Plains supercell.

Generally, I look for LCLs below 1500 for tornadoes across the High Plains (the High Plains give us a little bit of cushion room compared to the adjacent Central Plains), and it's looking like they should be in the 1500-2250 range which means not much tornado potential. We might have a chance should the storms survive until the 7-9 P.M. time period when things start cooling off and LCLs lower, but that's a bit of a long shot.

Hopefully I'll see some fellow chasers out there before I make my way to Kansas for college!

Ben

High Based Colorado Supercell- June 8

2011-06-15T01:40:00.000-06:00

It's been a while since I've posted pictures or done any formal chase reports, so I'll try and get on that soon. Until I can do that, this is what the supercell east of the Denver metro area looked like on June 8th.

I'll be out chasing this Thursday and Friday so look for some posts on those days as well. Looks like the Colorado (non-tornadic) supercell season finally kicked in! :D

Ben

Colorado FAIL - 6/11

2011-06-11T19:25:00.000-06:00

FAIL!

Slightly more detailed post coming later.

Ben

Chasing Marathon 6/11-6/13

2011-06-10T13:46:00.000-06:00

I think my last post slandering Colorado's severe weather season scared Ma Nature into throwing out some decent looking chase days.

Starting tomorrow, I will be chasing what looks to be a potential three day severe event throughout Colorado. Sunday might be a no-go because of the deadly cap/EML, but it looks like at least Saturday and Monday are pretty much set in stone. I'm so excited you don't even know...

Oh so beautiful...30% hatched peeping into Eastern Colorado

Now, I do realize that the 30% is for the expected upscale growth to an MCS for late evening/early nighttime, but I can't help but to imagine imbedded supercells or a tail end charlie based off of the forecasted hodographs. Not only this, but it looks like tornadoes are possible along the front range as the storms first develop.

Western Kansas hodograph as the MCS develops

THE EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF DUAL/LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
   TROUGHS/ASSOCIATED DPVA AND THE INCREASING UPSLOPE TRAJECTORIES WILL
   LIKELY SUPPORT INITIAL DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE CO
   FRONT RANGE...WITH ANOTHER/SOMEWHAT SEPARATE FOCUS FOR INITIAL DEEP
   CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EASTERN WY/SOUTHEAST MT AND PERHAPS
   THE BLACK HILLS BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. IN EACH OF
   THESE AREAS...VEERING WIND PROFILES WILL AND MODEST BUOYANCY/STEEP
   LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT INITIAL MODAL SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE
   HAIL AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.

I think the SPC is being a bit generous with the initial tornado forecast based off of what I'm seeing with the NAM, but if the GFS verifies then their wording could very well be qualified. According to the NAM, substantial shear doesn't show up until around 00z when everything has already moved onto the Eastern Plains. Still, no matter what, I have confidence that Colorado will put on an impressive show tomorrow.

An initial target area would be a La Junta/Lamar/Punkin Center triangle with the southern edge being the primary focus for initial development around 21z.

I won't (generically) forecast for Sunday or Monday until about 24 hours in advance due to capping concerns. However, if the cap can weaken a bit more then we will be in business.

Ben

You Can't Win if You Don't Play - Colorado 2011

2011-06-07T12:28:00.000-06:00

The premise of this post: This severe season is a complete joke for the entire state of Colorado. However, it has taught me a lot about chasing and myself and I wouldn't trade it for anything. Except maybe a few tornadoes.

Right now, we are in the peak of the severe weather season for Colorado...but if one were to look at the statistics they would not realize this.

Total Colorado severe reports: 56
Tornado Reports: 10
Hail Reports: 37
Wind Reports: 9

Don't let those tornado reports fool you - each and every one of those were landspouts. Yes, that means there has been no successfully tornadic supercell in Colorado thus far.

The future looks just as bleak. All hope the GFS wants to shine upon Colorado is shunted by the more conservative NAM with each and every run. It looks like a legitimate possibility that the peak severe season for Colorado could look like the average late March Colorado storm season.

And with all of that now on the table, I just want to say that I've made the best of what Ma Nature has thrown at us. On multiple occasions I was prevented from chasing the main setup in Kansas/Oklahoma and instead dug for gold in the copper fields of the Colorado last-pick play. On one or two of these occasions I was successful and bagged gorgeous supercells as a result of dedication and patience in regards to my circumstances.

Nothing comes easy with chasing, and last year (2010) failed to show me that. I was handed everything: from 10+ decent Colorado setups spread out over three months to tornado after tornado in favorable terrain and operable road networks - everything came easily. Life searches for balances, and I'm afraid my last season in Colorado was that balance.

Looking at the somewhat depressing, somewhat gleeful future of this season, there is a chance at a supercell up in Southeastern Wyoming tomorrow afternoon. You can't win if you don't play, so you'll see me up there. I'll keep on digging the gold from the copper fields until a tornado wipes out all of my so-called copper fields.

I'll be posting a more science oriented post on what I've noticed went wrong this season for Colorado sometime in the future. I might even consider posting a forecast for tomorrow if I'm feeling risky enough to jinx it.

Ben

June 1 Pre-Day Forecast

2011-06-01T00:26:00.000-06:00

As of now, I'll be heading out for yet another Western Kansas/Eastern Colorado/Southwest Nebraska chase tomorrow. There's been talk that this should be a marginal day (tornado wise), but I beg to differ. For the past two runs, both the NAM and GFS have been showing favorable shear and instability for a couple supercells in West/Southwest Kansas and Southwest Nebraska with decent tornado potential. The SPC has also changed their forecast to include a 5% tornado risk in Northwest Kansas/Southwest Nebraska, so I think we're right on track for an amazing supercell or two tomorrow. I expect this 5% to extend further into Southwest Kansas with further outlooks as well.

The plan right now is to meet up with my chasing team around 10 oclock and head east on I-70 out to near Goodland then adjust from there as necessary. Both the northern play and the southern play look decent, so it's a tough call to make 24 hours out.

SREF Precip. blobs are a convincing factor for the northern play...

NAM Precip. blobs make it a tough call...

GFS Precip. blob screams to stay on I-70...

If I have time, I'll try and post a morning-of forecast tomorrow. If not, good luck and I hope to see some fellow chasers out there!

And here's to my first tornado of the season...

Cheers,

Ben

5/17 Post-Chase Comment

2011-05-17T21:45:00.000-06:00

Well, I missed the tornadoes today and got stuck on the back side of the line instead. I had the full capability of getting to them, I just mis-targeted once I was actually on the storm and then had to bail because of marginally severe hail. Extremely frustrated...full blog post tomorrow. Congrats to Dann and anybody else that got to see them. I expect some awesome pictures!

Frustration...

2011-05-14T11:07:00.001-06:00

Well, my second actual chase of the season didn't go well...at all. Admittedly it did go better than the first because this time I actually heard thunder, but still, I'm not enthused. I'll just post my response on Stormtrack and leave it at that.

It was much, much more than a classic cap bust. Although that morning convection did completely demolish the set-up, that wasn't the ultimate cause. There was actually an even bigger problem with the day that lead to that crapvection - the shortwave that was supposed to help kick off our storms ejected about 6 hours early. Even if the morning convection hadn't been sparked off by this, the day would have most likely not owned up to what it was supposed to be. There probably would have still been storms, but with less forcing the overall threat would have been reduced.

The main issue with the morning convection was that not only did it clear out all of the already built in instability, it also towed away all the moisture. An outflow boundary followed the precip up into NE KS/SE Nebraska, switching most of Kansas's surface winds to westerlies. This obviously cleared out the moisture and resultant instability in addition to creating issues with redeveloping a moist warm sector. Yes, we got the heat later in the day, but the moisture just didn't return like it should have. Mid to high 50 DP's are significantly different than mid to high 60's (especially when temperatures rise to about what is forecasted).

So, overall, the day was just a complete bust. I'm still not convinced that sub-tropical wave didn't have something to do with our main wave ejecting early...

I'm putting this one behind me and looking forward to next week. It looks like Colorado might have its first backyard chase of the season. Yet again, the NAM and GFS don't agree on the level of moisture/placement of the best moisture, so anything could happen. I want to make it out for what looks to be a potential four day chase-a-thon, but with next week being the last week of high school for me, I'll probably be sitting the major days out and taking afternoon jaunts to closer targets instead.

Hope springs eternal!

C KS Hodo on May 18

Ben

5/11 Forecast #1

2011-05-09T20:43:00.000-06:00

Wednesday is a go.

Both the NAM and the GFS are showing a very impressive set up near the triple point in North Central Kansas/Nebraska during the afternoon of May 11. Upper level winds could be a little bit better directional-wise, but other than that I am convinced that this could be a significant chasing day. If I were to pinpoint a target area off the 0z NAM (and the last 4 runs seeing how they are all lining up), I'd pick a Hoxie, KS to Phillipsburg, KS to McCook, NE triangle.

Like I said, the upper level winds are confusing me a tad bit but other than that the wind profiles look phenomenal for tornadic supercells. This is the 00z reading after the storms initiate and move out of my target area - there will be a few hours before this that storms could already be tornadic during.

There is another target further down along the dryline in South Central Kansas and North Central Oklahoma, but I have multiple concerns for this area. In contrast to the northern target, the shear arrives when the CIN starts building back in, which would mean potential storms but likely non-tornadic. Although the shear does improve around 00z, so does the cap. Moisture and instability won't be a problem down there but the aforementioned issues override this.

I'm getting excited for my first chase of the season! More tomorrow when details are becoming finalized.

Ben

(Wish)casting

2011-05-07T19:10:00.000-06:00

Well, my wishcasting failed me and the severe potential for NE Colorado or anywhere near that is pretty much nil over the next couple of days. There will be severe storms and possibly a few tornadoes up near the SD/NE border but that's just way too long of a trip for this early in my chasing season. I've still got 6 of my 8 main chasing weeks left so I think I'll hold on to that money for a better, hopefully closer, set-up.

However, it looks like Wednesday is still holding some potential. We're looking at another potential moderate risk with the most tornado prone areas looking like Central Oklahoma according to the 18z GFS. Again, lots can change, and I'd still call this wishcasting at this point seeing how terrible the GFS has been lately. All we know is that there is going to be severe somewhere between N TX/most of OK/most of KS on Wednesday. Hopefully this will materialize and I can get out there!

My first tornado day - May 23, 2011 just north of Goodland, KS

Ben

College Drama

2011-05-05T21:58:00.000-06:00

Yea, I'm going on a rampage here with these blog posts. I missed out on a few months and have to catch up now...

I had some extreme frustration with the whole college application process this year; including the lack of a personal look at applications. Yes, I realize that they don't have the time or manpower to take a detailed look at every application but I'd assume that if they waitlist you they would actually read your essays. Here's my borderline essay that somehow got me denied from the University of Oklahoma:

Everybody goes through a challenging time in their life where they must face the darkest corners of life’s alleyways, reason with the temptations of the world, and determine what image they want the world to perceive them under. This journey is undertaken through various different ways by the many people in this world, and unfortunately it was taken through the aspect of school for me. During my sophomore year of high school, I strayed from my path of consistent success and a hopeful future as the struggles of adolescence got the best of me. Confused by my naturally changing person and by the artificial factors encouraging me to change for the better and the worse, I lost sight of what I wanted in life. Admittedly, I partook in activities that I would not have normally engaged myself in. Although none too extreme, these activities strayed me from the path I should have been taking as I stared down the crossroads of my future. As I underwent this struggle through the majority of my sophomore year, my grades drastically plummeted. This was an indirect anomaly resulting from my change in focus. What I needed at this point was a moment where I could look in the mirror and see what had happened to me, see the decrepit, haunting path I had set myself stumbling down. Eventually the summer of sophomore year arrived, and the time I needed to do my share of soul searching presented itself in generous fashion. Realizing what I had done, I established firm guidelines for my life in order to regain what I had lost. With the help of the lessons I had learned from the mistakes made in the past year and the new laws I had set for myself, I continually bettered myself throughout the course of my junior year in high school. Not only did I improve my academic rigor, I also restructured my moral compass to one that would never again let me deviate from my newfound path of success. With my newly discovered passion for success and achievement, I set myself apart from other students in my maturity level and emotional organization. I had not only returned to the level of capability I had been at before my sophomore year struggles, I had also further strengthened literally every aspect of my life. Now that I had set the foundation for my future, I now turned to what I wanted from myself past the present. Eventually discovering my devout passion in meteorology, I sought after anything and everything that could help better my understanding of this complicated science. As I improved my knowledge of meteorology through rigorous academic research, hours of meteorological conventions, and days chasing the storms that spurred my wonder, I realized the depth to which this passion soared. Knowing without a doubt that this is what I wanted to do during the rest of my life, I researched options that would help increase my chances of being able to follow my dreams. I nearly immediately landed upon the University of Oklahoma: one of the best severe weather meteorology schools in the world and a place that would give me uncountable opportunities in my chosen field. I saw myself walking through the gorgeous campus, proudly calling myself an Oklahoma Sooner, and I knew that this college was the one I had been looking for. With my intense academic vigor, unsurpassable passion for meteorology, and the know-how to succeed and learn from my mistakes, my desire to go to the University of Oklahoma is without a doubt a qualified one. These traits combined with the life long lessons I have learned from my past mistakes and adolescent struggles will set me apart from the rest as I take on the role of an Oklahoma Sooner.

I'll make a more detailed post on my views on the college application process later. I just happened to land on this essay tonight and it sparked up some forgotten frustrations...

Speak of the Devil

2011-05-04T20:27:00.000-06:00

Well, following my first severe season post last night the GFS has decided to get its act together and put together what looks to be a couple potential chase days for the High Plains. The most convincing day for me right now is next Monday, the 9th, as a trough somewhat stalls over the rockies. Adequate shear for supercells with more than impressive hodographs for tornadoes will place itself over far NE CO/SE WY/SW NE above moderate moisture.

Tuesday also holds some hope, but it's looking more like a pseudo-cold front (actual cold front?) play across nearly the same areas. However, if Wednesday verifies we could have a tornado outbreak on our hands from North-Central Oklahoma all the way up to the KS/NE border. If this looks like the case as it nears the NAM, I will be taking Wednesday off school to chase. More later!

Ben

First Weather(ish) Related Post of 2011

2011-05-03T20:59:00.000-06:00

Well, it's been a long..long winter for those of us in Colorado but it appears it has finally drawn to a close. Over the past few weeks we've shifted from the occasional 60's with spurts of snow to 70's, rain showers, and spring-time thunderstorms on the more turbulent days. Snow isn't out of the question but it looks like we're pretty much done with Old Man Winter for a couple more months.

April was undoubtedly one of the most insane months for severe weather any of us have seen - and for good reason. Multiple significant tornado and severe weather episodes occurred, unfortunately claiming hundreds of lives and breaking numerous records in the process. I love watching severe weather unfold across portions of the country that I can't make it to see firsthand, but not when it leads to this. These past few weeks have redefined my hunger to explore the unknowns of meteorology in hopes of saving lives in the future. College is coming up in a mere few months, and with that comes the reality that this dream is quickly becoming a possibility if I push myself to make it that.

April was a big month, but I'm betting on May being a big month. There's been talk of ridging for most of the month but, honestly, I'm not worried about that in the least. Yes, these first few days have been slow but look back at the first part of 2008 and you'll see several slow days as well. After that it went flying. The first real severe set-ups of May should be coming up this weekend and I'm hoping they make it far enough west for me to make a go on. Other than that, the Goofus (courtesy Dann Cianca, and very fitting for the past few runs) has been hinting at the severe weather season arriving shortly for Colorado and the rest of the High Plains. I'm banking on this verifying and getting out there during my last few weeks of high school!

Until severe weather nudges its sometimes ugly, sometimes beautiful face closer to the always beautiful Colorado, I'll be lying low.

Just a random memory..we recently passed the one year anniversary of the near-wreckage of my brand new car due to severe hail damage during an early hail storm last season. RIP original door and roof panels, may you never be bothered by hail ever again.

Ben

Valentine's Day

2011-02-14T20:28:00.000-07:00

All I can say is I was fortunate enough to spend my Valentine's day with the most beautiful girl in the world.

They say roses are red,
And violets are blue,
That's all sweet,
But it isn't worthy of my love for you.

My love for you is a flowing waterfall,
Pounding, surging, wider than it is tall,
Endless in the amount that flows,
Into the beating heart of the lake below.

My love for you is a burning tornado of fire,
An unstoppable twister of desire,
Tossing aside anything that may get in its way,
For from this path of love I will never stray.

My love for you is a shooting star,
For there is no telling how infinitely far,
It will travel to make your wishes come true,
Cause I would do anything for you my baby boo.

So I was just wondering if you'd be my juliet,
On this special day spelled L.O.V.E.,
Just think about the perfection, baby,
Of the thought of you and me.

-Ben Toms

Updated Tally for 2010 & 2011 Updates

2011-01-09T19:32:00.000-07:00

After post-season analysis from Roger Hill and other parties, it has been determined I was fortunate to observe a final tally of 57 tornadoes during the 2010 season. Granted most of these were observed on the tour with Roger Hill, 42 to be exact, it is just a measure of how lucky I was to observe so many different types of tornado events. I am very grateful for the experiences I had during the 2010 season - I just hope that this once-in-a-lifetime number doesn't phase me from enjoying my future seasons as much.

Putting the 2010 season in the past and looking to the future the 2011 season witholds is as much of a stimulant as it is a depressant. Although the 2011 season holds a potential for much more promising results due to the fact that I am now not a 100% amateur (just a 99.99% one), it also brings a much higher stress level than the previously mentioned 2010 season. Due to the fact that I have been wait listed by not only my dream college but also the only college I have applied to, my future past this season will always be on my mind. In addition, a job and balancing chasing with my social life and girlfriend will prove to be a challenge. That being said, I am looking at the 2011 season from an optimistic standpoint. I recently purchased new gear including the Canon EOS 60D which will turn my pesimism regarding my low image quality into newly found optimism. Not only will there be more gear to use in the field, but I will also have more time in general to go chasing should my job and social life oblige. Being that it is my second semester of senior year, my school schedule will be more flexible.

With this new time on my hands, I have been setting myself up with a few friends I can go chasing with on most occasions. Still, if anybody is willing to let me tag along on some of the longer chases I would appreciate it. I can pitch on gas, housing, etc. and can drive on the way to the target area assuming I will not be trusted with in-chase driving. I also have Baron's, GPS, and GRLevel3 to contribute to the set-up.

On a final note I will be attending the annual ChaserCon so I will probably see most of you there.

Good luck to everybody in preparations for the upcoming season and I hope to see you all out there when it finally arrives!

Ben

11/16 Denver Fall Convection

2010-11-16T17:15:00.000-07:00

Daytime heating and an approaching system kicked off what I initially thought to be a small supercell. This storm eventually lined out into a squall with multiple cold air funnels reported near DIA.

Sorry for the low image quality. I was at work so I had to take a quick picture on my cellphone in between cleaning cars.

Equipment Upgrades

2010-11-07T20:56:00.000-07:00

I've been looking into a few equipment upgrades for next season and am pretty sure I'll be purchasing the

EOS Rebel T2i EF-S.

I'd also like to get my hands on a legitimate HD Camcorder but I think that might have to wait until the 2012 season.

June 10 2010 Dusk Supercell

2010-11-04T21:14:00.000-06:00

Classic Supercell east of Deer Trail, CO on June 10 shortly after dropping two photogenic tornadoes.

Raw Emotion

2010-11-03T20:03:00.000-06:00

Raw Emotion

A ride home in the car after an excruciatingly long and painful day, havoc tearing across the millions of synapses in my brain. And all I can think about is you.

The heater is on in the car and I can't stand it. I switch it to cold but that just makes it worse. I panic and don't know what to do so I open the car windows in the chilling wind and crank up the heat to try and balance out the opposites. My bones are frozen to the core while I am burned alive.

A flashback to the day when I first saw you. A simple second of eye contact left so much more to be desired and yet so many of my desires satisfied. Thoughts racing through my mind: Am I good enough for you? What should I say? Was that just a glance in my direction or did it mean something more?

Awakened from my daydream, I realize that I have taken the wrong way home. Now stuck in the chaotic construction traffic, I submit myself to another dose of that feeling that I can't quite put my hand on. A ball of panic rises up my throat while my heart stops beating in spite of me.

Sitting in front of a pond, rain rhythmically pattering the surface. I think to myself that I will never forget this moment. I will live in the depths of my mind for eternity, occasionally showing its beautiful face when I need something to pull me out of the dark. In this moment I am the happiest I have been in my entire life.

A moment further back in time. I am standing in front of the first tornado of my life: a long, slender wand the consistency of a snake writhing in my eyes. Nothing can top this moment, this will be the best moment of my life.

Back to a mere five weeks ago, I lie staring at the stars remembering the trials of the past two years of my life and all the pain and happiness therein. I remember the day I promised myself the day I saw my first tornado would be the best of my life. She had proven me wrong, and the snake began to writhe in my gut as complicated emotions swept over me.

Most people would say a car isn't a romantic place. You put them all to shame. Sitting, separated by that terrible piece of plastic in between us, I finally began to understand the feelings that had scared me so much. "I love you."

The last memory being so strong, I come back to as my passion is ignited. My arms are tingling, my legs are begin to tremble.

"I love you." I wanted to cry so bad, but my body wouldn't let it happen. It wasn't natural......"I love you." And the world around us melted away, leaving just you and me hovering on that wondrous cushion of air.

The first tear of pain streaking down your eye. I had never seen a more agonizing, disturbing sight in my life. I had to make it stop. Had to make it never happen again. It was a horrifying situation that we found ourselves in but I knew we could make it through. We weren't just another one of those couples, we were something greater.

The memories flood my brain, cause me to lose my sense of self control. Is that a tear beading in my eye? What was that odd feeling, coursing through my veins. I felt so alive.

How do I even start to wrap my mind around what has just happen? Should I write a poem? Would that cure me of this divine sickness?

My bones are frozen to the core while I am burned alive,
This is the feeling on which I know thrive,
As I seek out its meaning through the seconds that feel like hours,
I am constantly reminded of your beauty which empowers.

I'm strong with you and yet feel so frail,
for you are one of those angels to which the kings would hail,
Begging you for your grace,
And yet I am the only who you so tenderly embrace.

You are the light in the suffocating gloom,
The rescuing hand to pull me out of my sealed tomb,
You are the sanctuary to which I can confide,
Even the darkest secrets that I struggle to hide.

I love you with all my heart and soul,
And yet I know I can never accomplish that on this imaginary scroll.
I would do anything for you,
And when we are faced with the problems life may strew,
There is no doubt in my mind that we can make it through.

Love you babe.

"I Hate Storm Chasers"

2010-10-14T20:55:00.000-06:00

It's a shame how immaturity shows its face through the internet more so than it does in person. The drama throughout the chasing community is absolutely disgusting. Most thought that the drama was topped this season with all of the hate surrounding the mass chaser convergence, but that apparently isn't the case. Since when is it right to mock another human being's death, especially a fellow friend's? I may be a mere 17 year old, but even I know that a line that should never even be looked at has been crossed. I am appauled.

Upslope Chaos Official Logo

2010-09-14T21:03:00.000-06:00

Bumper stickers have been finalized so if you want to advertise for me give me a holler (that's a joke....maybe).

Exclamation Point!

2010-09-13T15:08:00.000-06:00

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN OMAHA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...

* UNTIL 445 PM CDT

* AT 400 PM CDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD
NEAR THOMPSON...OR 28 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BEATRICE. A TORNADO MAY
DEVELOP AT ANY TIME! DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS POTENTIALLY TORNADIC
STORM MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  ENDICOTT AND STEELE CITY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

Exclamation point in warning text? That's new.

2010 Chase Season Wrap-Up

2010-09-04T17:28:00.000-06:00

Discounting the rouge fall season chase, I am officially drawing a close to the 2010 chase season. Undoubtedly this has been one of the best seasons of many chasers' lifetimes, and I am willing to put a bet on the fact that it will end up being one of my best as well. I am not basing my success on numbers because that would me plain out foolish. Instead, I am basing it off of how much I have learned throughout the season, how I rebounded from my mistakes, and how much this showed up in my late season chases.

To put it all into perspective, I went from a completely confused chaser with zero experience to a chaser who has now experienced every type of tornado/supercell out there. I want to highlight the fact that I recognize I am not an experienced chaser by any means and can take only a marginal amount of responsibility for this experience.

At the start of the season, I admit that I had not a clue about what I was stepping into. This became evident quickly as I nearly wrecked my car in an early season hail storm on April 21.

Realizing that I was by no means being responsible by chasing by myself, I tried chasing with other more experienced people. Turns out this worked for my advantage as I bagged my first tornadoes with Zach Young on May 23. However, wanting to put myself in a position where I was forced to act on my own accord, I switched back to solo chasing for the first weeks of June. During this time I witnessed multiple tornadoes, including the June 10 Palmer Divide day that I will never forget. Although these were some of the last days of the season that I chased solo, I am now able to recognize how to act and react towards storms when I'm in the field with other chasers.

Just for giggles, I'll throw out some stats from the season.

Tornadoes observed: 46
Tornadoes with other chasers (not Roger Hill): 15
Chase miles: 14000 accounted for, most likely more
States chased in: Colorado, Texas, Kansas, Wyoming, Montana, South Dakota, Oklahoma, Iowa
Significant tornadoes seen: 1 EF4, 3 EF3
Various car repairs: 3 blown tires, hail repair insurance claim

As you can tell, this is going to be a nearly impossible season to top with the 46 tornadoes observed, most of those coming from the Dupree, SD and Southern Minnesota chase days. You can see most of my quality pictures in the previous post. I will be adding more shortly, along with my own "Upslope Chaos" design.

Thanks to everybody who has supported me and helped me grow through this past season, namely my parents, Zach Young, Mark Farnik, Dann Cianca, and everybody else who reads my blog.

Top Pictures of Late Season 2010

2010-08-30T19:51:00.000-06:00

I don't think I've posted many of these yet, hope you all enjoy.

June 10, Deer Trail, CO

June 24, Broadus, MT

June 24, Broadus MT

June 24, Broadus, MT

June 16, Dupree SD

June 17, Albert Lea, MN

I will leave the rest for later. No doubt in my mind this past season will go down as one of the best (if not the best) in my lifetime.

8/19 Nighttime Denver Severe Warning

2010-08-19T20:33:00.000-06:00

Watching The Office tonight, a severe warning map popped up at the bottom of the screen, showing a severe warning out for the central and northern parts of the Denver metro. Curious if this could mean some nighttime structure/lightning shots, I checked radar and saw the most pathetic severe warned storm I have ever seen.

Granted the warning is merely for 60 mph winds, but I don't see anything that could even prompt a warning for winds. No apparent gust front, etc. Not only that, the highest tops showing on GR3 in the warning box are at 20k-30k.

I'm not saying that there wasn't a reason to warn the storm, I'm just not seeing one.

August 16 Late Season Tornadofest

2010-08-17T15:09:00.000-06:00

Mark Farnik, Sean Mullins, and I scored a late season tornado fest yesterday in NE Colorado. Gotta love those beefy Colorado boundaries! We observed four tornadoes, two of which were landspouts and two of a supercellular nature.

Third tornado of the day in Morgan County

This was the most classic and, in my opinion, the best tornado of the day. You can see the RFD cutting around the tornado, signifying its supercellular nature. Although it was of a mesocyclonic origin, tornadogenisis likely occured because of boundary interaction. Unfortunately this tornado did cause damage, although it appears nobody was injured. A picture of the tornado:

I thought I captured some footage of the fourth tornado, but instead of hitting the record button I put my camcorder on standby. Doh...

A bonus to the day: I've finally discovered why all of my pictures come out with the whites overexposed...I've been leaving the aperture all the way open all the time. Just part of the learning process, I guess.

Great surprise, and a perfect kick-off to my senior year in highschool.

July 15 SE Colorado Report

2010-07-18T14:02:00.000-06:00

Instead of chasing the more marginal Palmer play, I headed out towards Limon where I believed the best ingredients were in place for a tornadic supercell. I ended up being right as a south moving supposed beast of a supercell tracked from Burlington to Cheyenne Wells. Unfortunately, I had to leave late (around 2:30) because of a doctor's appointment so I could never really get in front of the storm. I did get on the southwest side of it, but always got cut off from the southwest side. Still a great chase day overall, especially for July.

By tornadic supercell standards, the storm was complete junk for 80% of its life. Even when it started hooking up over Burlington, I couldn't even decide if it was surface based or not. It just looked nasty. Somehow it managed to recuperate itself just north of Cheyenne Wells, taking on the death hook look on radar. After wasting twenty minutes deciding if I should head home back up in Burlington, I couldn't quite make it up to the southeastern side without being sideswiped by the golfball sized hail. I can confirm that there was a very picturesque meso, although potentially completely rainwrapped, on the other side of the hook. As I tried to bolt from highway to highway on a dirt road I managed to get a glimpse of the inflow portion of the storm. It looked pretty damn intimidating and low to the ground. I wouldn't be surprised if there was in fact a tornado buried back in there somewhere.

No pictures are worth posting other than the stunning mammatus show on the backside of the line.

Hopefully we get one more decent chase day before the summer is over. I don't know if I can last 8 months without a supercell.

June 16 Dupree, SD Chase Report

2010-07-12T23:54:00.000-06:00

I'd like to mention that one picture in this report belongs to Hannah Weddell, a fellow chaser. I have received permission to use it in my report. You can see all of my pictures from this day on my Facebook page.

On June 16, 2010 a slight risk day turned into a historic one. Extreme instability combined with adequate shear was meant to lead to a low risk tornado day. Although there was still a chance for tornadoes, very large hail was the primary risk.

It is a shame this day has been somewhat overlooked because of a few popular, yet immature, chasers out there who pointed their fingers at us 'liars' who actually observed this storm. It is unnecessary to say that scientists who actually know will be studying this storm for some time to come.

The day started out with a hefty drive from North Platte, SD all the way up to the "Four B's" convergence zone up in Southeast Montana, Northeast Wyoming, Southwest North Dakota, and Northwest South Dakota. This area is more commonly known as the Black Hills and is a common focus point for storm initiation on days like the 16th. It acts much like the Palmer divide in that it provides just enough lift to get storms going when other places can't get it done. In the end, it turned out that we didn't need this source of lift to get our storms going. As we arrived on scene, it was obvious a convergence boundary had set up just east of the Hills, sparking up what I'd describe as atomic turkey towers. I can't find any pictures of these turkeys, but I guarantee you they could have planted fear in the hearts of even the most seasoned chasers. After a prolonged lunch stop at the local Fuddruckers, we headed back east to intercept what I knew would be the show of the day. About fourty-five minutes after initiation:

Notice the overshooting top. At this point it was still trying to really get going, but had already developed a bowl shaped lowering at its base. This storm looked as if it was going to produce even in its immature stages, but ended up dying a quick LP death on the wrong side of the warm front. By this time, a string of storms had developed down the convergence line. The second storm looked pretty but never held any real potential. A strongly rotating wall cloud did eventually develop, but the storm was already crossing the boundary.

It looks like there's no real updraft to the storm, but just to the right of where the picture ends the updraft rockets into the sky. Just after this storm crossed the boundary and died yet another LP death, the real storm started its show. Our view of the updraft was blocked by the 3"+ hail core, but it even had a hook on Baron's which is a site rarely seen. The storm slowed to a crawl, taking its time to get to us, which made us miss a small needle tornado, but we soon forgot about that.

A gorgeous barrel updraft, LP style, lingered on the not-so-distant horizon, dropping two smaller elephant trunk tornadoes. At the time this picture was taken, a larger tornado was trying to form. Here's another perspective:

Breathtaking view.

This is when it really started cranking up. It was obviously starting to right turn directly on top of the boundary, which is why the mid level inflow went from nil to apocalyptic in a matter of minutes. Roger was getting pesimistic, but I had no doubt in my mind this was about to do something incredible. Twenty to thirty minutes later:

Picture courtesy Hannah Weddell

One hell of a storm. This was the most dramatic, intense moment of my life. We had cops flying past us, in and out of the city, panicking over what to do. For a while it looked as if the town of Dupree was going to take a direct hit from a strong to violent tornado.

We were near positive the storm had already anchored itself along the front, but were being slightly thrown off by the tornado's rotation around the meso (if that makes any sense). After moving a mile or two down the road, we turned around to see a half mile plus wide tornado apparently parked directly over town.

What bothered, and still bothers, me is the fact that the more inexperienced people on the tour were excited over the fact that the town was possibly being shredded. I don't know what about people's lives being destroyed is fascinating, but apparently I'm missing something. If I ever see that from fellow chasers, I'm out.

Obviously I'm skipping some of the smaller tornadoes for the sake of keeping this report under 5 pages. As the wedge rotated around the left side of the meso, the controversial 4-5 tornadoes on the ground at the same time scene occurred.

Tornado 1: Large wedge on left side of meso
Tornado 2: Left-most tornado in the triplet in the middle
Tornado 3: Middle tornado in the triplet in the middle
Tornado 4: Right-most tornado in the triplet in the middle
Tornado 5: Left-most lowering forming, eventually condensated almost all the way to the ground
Tornado 6?: Funnel in upper right corner of the picture. This funnel eventually strengthened and lowered substantially, although it could have gone either way if it was on the ground or not

People are claiming this was just an insane multi-vortex, but I guarantee you it was not. Watch Roger Hill's video at the end of this log and it is obvious they are all separate tornadoes.

After another large wedge, the storm eventually went completely HP. Radar still showed multiple couplets across the now rain wrapped meso so it is very likely there were still tornadoes on the ground.

I know that was an excessively large report but I felt it was necessary seeing how significant of an event this was. I will probably make a post looking at the science of it once I'm caught up on all of my reports.

Roger Hill's video of the outbreak...I had the exact same perspective on the storm.

June 13 Chase Report - Slapout, OK

2010-07-07T21:58:00.000-06:00

Had this day been my first chase day ever, I would have thrown in the towel right then and there. Starting off on the first day of the SLT 6 day tour, we had to make it from Denver all the way down to the northern Texas Panhandle by noon. Atleast that was my opinion. It was obvious to me that the cap would be breaking early, but for some reason we still left Denver in hopes for a 3 oclock or later initiation time which ultimately led to us missing a tornado. That being said, I think this day put emphasis on how tough the long drives can be for the few folk that had never gone chasing before.

We arrived on the back side of the dominant supercell in the far NE Texas Panhandle relatively late, with a severe thunderstorm warning already issued for golf ball and greater sized hail. After a good half hour of figuring out how we were going to get down to the front side of the storm, a tornado warning had been issued for a spotter reported tornado. Eventually we found a road that started paved but didn't show up as paved on GPS and thought to hell with it. Fortunately, the Texas road network helped us out a little bit and put us in perfect position to witness the first of two rain wrapped tornadoes, the first of which would be named the Slapout tornado. I got a quality picture of the supercell without any tornadoes so I'll post that one first just to show how HP this storm really was:

The area of interest, or the bear's cage, was the obvious hooking area in the middle left of the picture. There was intense rotation at the time which ended up putting down this tornado...courtesy of Hannah Weddell for the following pictures:

Notice the bowl shaped lowering in the middle left of the picture. This was a confirmed tornado with a circulation on the ground, occasionally fully condensing to the ground. It eventually rotated around the meso and matured Courtesy Hannah Weddell:

Another 3-5 minute long rain wrapped tornado occurred shortly after this one became rain wrapped again Courtesy Hannah Weddell:

Notice the slender, dark lowering in the middle of the picture. This was a confirmed tornado. Courtesy Hannah Weddell

All in all a great kick-off to the tour. I thought this was going be as good as it was going to get for the week but oh was I in for a surprise! I'll be getting reports up for the Dupree, SD storm on the 16th of June and the Southern Minnesota outbreak on the 17th of June shortly. I'll be making them more in depth seeing how they were much more significant events.

June 9 Chase Report-

2010-07-06T00:52:00.000-06:00

I forgot to do this short report before the major June 10th one so I'll just toss this one up now.

On this day, the best ingredients (and that's probably an understatement) were parked around and northeast of the Palmer Divide, but because of the insane capping inversion in place over much of Colorado it was a definite bargain. I noticed a secondary target up north near the Cheyenne Ridge where there was still ample instability and shear just not as much in the low levels of the atmosphere.

In the end I decided to play the upper-middle and set my target area for just east of Cheyenne along I-80. Around 2 PM, showers started kicking off of the Cheyenne Ridge but it was obvious there was still a strong cap. Towers would try to go up, but as soon as it looked like they punched through they just died out and shriveled. I played around in the rain showers for a while but got tired of watching inflow band after inflow band sputter out so I set up camp in the original target area: just south of Burns, WY. By accident I set up camp in the middle of the V2 armada which led to some intense staring from the counterpart, but I was tired of driving and not so enthused by the now infamous Josh Wurman "We Hate Chasers" video so I held my ground. By 5:30, my hope was dwindling with an impressive cap still in place over much of eastern Wyoming. Mother Nature proved me wrong yet again as a couple towers shot up on the northeast edge of the ridge. I doubted their capabilities at first, but once a meso marker showed up on GR3, both V2 and I decided to head out. I'm proud to say that while V2 hauled off at 10+ over the speed limit, I remained the law abiding citizen.

With 90% of the chaser community watching rainbows down in Colorado, there was relatively no convergence to be seen aside from the Storm Chasers crew and a few other low key chasers. I arrived on the scene of the crime just as the storm split and reorganized, sporting a beautifully structured meso:

It looked as if the meso was actually shrinking a little bit, but low level rotation increased a considerable amount as the storm headed directly at me.

There was a slight lowering underneath the main meso which kept trying to push down, but I couldn't ever tell if it was just a wall forming or a broad funnel. At this point, the storm had become so deviant from the northeast motions that it was literally coming straight at me...almost straight southwest of it. Being the genious that I am, I hung out along with 5-10 other chaser cars and watched the storm try to produce literally 100 yards away from us. At one point it got pretty dramatic, with a chaser's wife screaming at him to get in the car. I'm hoping to get the video up soon...I had the camcorder rolling the whole time. I still haven't figured out how to get a decent quality video on youtube so it most likely won't be in the near future. Here's a picture of what it looked like a mile or two away. At this point you could start to see the overall C shape to the meso with the gigantic RFD cut in the back. The lighting was amazing.

The storm quickly died after it passed over me, moving into more stable air. Overall a successful chase. No tornadoes, but a beautifully structured storm along with some intense moments made it a positive one.

June 10 Chase Report

2010-07-03T00:19:00.000-06:00

I started off this day as I do a usual chasing day - I woke up at 1:00, realized I was missing out on a potentially significant day, and hauled a** out the door to an undefined target. The night before I had set a possible target of just north of Brush, Colorado potentially all the way up to Scottsbluff, so I bolted in that direction. After arriving on scene with no lunch in the belly and a data-less data card, I turned around to see the V2 armada going south instead of north. Confused, I called the trustworthy nowcasters back at home and had them point me in the right direction. I was told Pueblo was the way to go which just shows how terrible of a teacher I am. Anyways, I decided to head back south to Brush to catch some data and in doing so I realized my panic over waking up late was all for not. Contrary to the RUC and NAM models, moisture wasn't making it quite far enough north to reach the moderate risk area. Instead it was pooling around the Palmer, creating one of those oh-so-delicious Palmer Divide upslope days. Arriving on scene, I was treated to this gorgeous LP supercell just east of the metro area:

It had just passed over a very slim corridor of heightened LCLs and was beginning to restrengthen. On a small tangent but still relative to the report, Mark Farnik and Zach Young somehow happened to drive by me in the middle of nowhere. I had found the most desolate road in the area and they had found me, bizarre. It ended up working out in my advantage not only because I now had company as I drooled over this beauty, but also because they had GPS. Yes, I admit, I had gotten myself lost in the middle of nowhere in the path of a potentially tornadic supercell...oops. Anyways, it soon turned into this:

At this point it had a radar indicated tornado warning on it. We had a perfect viewing spot but decided to get out of there before our cars got demolished by the hail. Five minutes later I turned around:

Bleh, lined out crap. It looked like the show was possibly coming to a close with three storms going through a linear merger. All attention turned to the once scrawny LP at the tail end of the newly formed line. On the way down, we almost got distracted by an embedded supercell with an impressive wall, but we pushed on.

We were still a good distance away from the storm, but that did not kill the show. Some of the most experienced chasers I've met later said this would become one of the most beautiful storms they've seen. We jogged north a mile or so to see what the other storm was doing and ultimately ended up killing the time we had in between the LP structure show and the tornado show. We pulled up just in time.

Tornado number one! Beautiful cone, perfectly back-lit by the setting sun. I could really go nuts on posting pictures but I'll just keep it at that. We headed east a little bit further to avoid the baseball sized hail that had already demolished numerous chasers' cars, and ended up in a relatively good position for the second tornado.

I'm still working on figuring out camera settings for backlit tornado photography, so I count this one as a success. After the second tornado cycled, the storm took on a more massive hailer, HP mode but still boasted convincing low level rotation. The base was so wide the entire storm wouldn't fit into one picture. This storm was an absolute beast.

I ended up bailing on the storm after dark and tried to head home except there was one problem. A new "sub-severe" line had developed behind the main storm and was in the way of Denver and I. The storm had a GR3 marker of .5-.75 inches (back and forth on the runs), but looking at the storm I put it closer to 1.5 inches. After waiting for a half an hour watching the line back build time and time again, I nutted up and core punched it. Problem is, I was right about the 1.5 inch hail...partially. I ended up turning around after my hood got smashed by another 2"+ stone, trying to save the rest of my car. I only ended up with three new dents but that golf ball really left its mark on my hood.

I'll be getting up some more reports here in the near future. I've been trying to recover from court dates, my two week chasecation, and the college visiting round I went on with the pops. Hopefully us Coloradans get some more storms here soon!

6/16 and 6/17 Outbreak Prelim. Pictures

2010-06-19T01:23:00.000-06:00

The last tornado from Thursday in southern Minnesota.

First violent tornado on Wednesday in Dupree, SD

The Motherload - Southern Minnesota on Thursday.

These are just a few of dozens of amazing photos from these two days. Scored 29 tornadoes in two days including 6 wedges. I'll post a more detailed post later on. Chase(s) of a lifetime.

6/16/2010, A Historic Day

2010-06-16T21:22:00.000-06:00

Well, I'm at a complete loss of words for today. I expected the Northern Plains to go big, and man did they prove me wrong...they went historic. There were multiple supercells at the start of the day, but one took over the show in elite fashion. 13 tornadoes were captured on camera, with multiple more probably wrapped in rain due to the HP-ish nature of the storm. I witnessed 3 wedges, 3 elephant trunks, and a time where there were 4-5 tornadoes on the ground at the same time. All of this was witnessed over a 3 hour period while only driving 10 miles. This is definitely the chase of a lifetime. I don't think anything I will see in my lifetime will match up to this day.

At one point, a violent tornado came within 50 yards of ripping a small town apart, but fortunately most of the buildings were spared. We met a family whose house was completely destroyed which was an experience beyond words. I will never forget the look on the lady's face.

I'll post a more detailed report later on, my thoughts are just way too scattered right now to write anything that makes sense.

6/16 Northern Plains Insanity Update

2010-06-16T14:12:00.000-06:00

We've fallen somewhat behind in southwest North Dakota partially because of a missed forecast but also because of a lack of seriousness which bothers me. We are trying to catch up to the atomic bombs going off in northwest North Dakota, but it's still a 90 minute drive and I'm afraid that the cap isn't going to hold off that long. If a storm can remain isolated in this environment, it could become a very violent storm, dropping some significant severe weather. This isn't a mediocre chase day, this is the real deal. I'll try and post an update later tonight after all is said and done. If you aren't already, stay tuned to the unfolding events in the Northern Plains because when it goes it's going big.

Northern Plains Insanity Day of Update

2010-06-16T07:03:00.000-06:00

This morning's models are lining up for a memorable day across the Northern Plains this afternoon and evening. Roger is being conservative in his prediction and saying a moderate probability for tornadoes, but I'd place it closer to a high end threat. Knowing the terrain, which is much similar to the Palmer/Cheyenne Ridges of Colorado/Wyoming, there is no doubt in my mind we will get initiation today, especially if the NAM has its way. Seeing how curved the hodographs are, any storm that forms is going to go absolutely insane, especially in the low levels. I'll bite my tongue a little bit and just say this: I'm planning on tornadoes today. Maybe a big one, maybe not, but I don't care how big it is because the structure and scenery should be the big show of the day.

Tomorrow is getting me a tad bit worried for the folks of Eastern ND/SD/NE and most of Wisconsin. It looks as if an outbreak is going to materialize all along that area, and even possibly even into Canada. We will hopefully be playing the southern Canada target if time and people permit.

Northern Plains Insanity

2010-06-15T22:43:00.000-06:00

Oh boy am I in for a treat tomorrow. A massive trough is expected to move through the northern plains tomorrow, creating a set up prime for intense tornadic supercells across a majority of the area.. The hodos are indicative of not only high tornado probabilities, but also the potential for some strong and maybe long track tornadoes. We will be playing the extreme SE corner of Montana tomorrow.

We witnessed two rain-wrapped tornadoes on Sunday in the northern Texas Panhandle, both of which I failed to get a good picture of. I forgot to turn my camera on auto-focus so the majority of my pictures are blurry. If I find some time later this week (which I won't) I'll get them up, otherwise it'll be next week.

The day after tomorrow, Thursday, looks to be another insane day over parts of southern Canada and the entirety of Wisconsin. Although the hodos look the best in Wisconsin, the terrain is not as favorable for chasing as it is in Canad being that it has dense tree cover in most of the eastern portions.

I probably won't get in another update until Saturday seeing how I'll be on the road 18+ hours of the day throughout the end of the week.

SLT Day 1 Update

2010-06-13T09:34:00.000-06:00

We're bolting down to the Texas Panhandle in hopes of chasing the potentially tornadic setup this afternoon/evening but tensions are running high. The cap has already worn off, resulting in a surface based storm already forming near Amarillo. If storms end up sparking this early, that means a cluttered mess with very little tornadic potential this afternoon once the wind profiles really become favorable for strongly rotating updrafts. There is still some discrepancy between hour by hour RUC/HRRR runs as to where the front is positioned during the 22z-00z time period which is just adding another complication to an already frustrating situation. We're keeping our fingers crossed for the best.

It looks like we'll be playing the SE NM/SW TX play tomorrow in hopes of getting that isolated beast the NAM has been wanting to break out for the last few days. Little to moderate tornado potential exists with that storm.

We will then be driving all the way up to Montana/North Dakota on Tuesday for the potentially significant setup in the Northern Plains on Wednesday. If the current NAM holds up, there could be a significant tornado outbreak in the SE Montana/NE Wyoming area. I won't go into too much detail on this setup as of yet due to the uncertainty in the potency of the setup, but it looks like this will be our best tornado day.

After the Northern Plains chaos ends, it looks like it will be back to Colorado/Wyoming for our final chase day.

I'll give another update this afternoon unless things get tense.

Where can I buy some sleep?

2010-06-11T21:05:00.000-06:00

Combine a week long chase marathon with random insomnia and you get an exhausted Ben. Although this week has been no doubt the best week of 2010, I am ready for a break.

I scored the drop dead awesome supercell near Deer Trail yesterday, bringing my tornado count to 6 for the season. Not many of my pictures came out well (my camera doesn't seem to like backlit storms), but I'll still be posting some here in the near future. Expect a flood of chase reports and pictures coming in the next week. I'm leaving to go on my chase tour with Silver Lining Tours tomorrow night which means hours of sitting in the car doing nothing which will give me the time I need to catch up on editing.

Man, has chasing been such a different beast than I thought it would be. For one, it's been a lot more expensive than I anticipated, drying out my bank account in a matter of weeks. That might partially be because I don't have a real job, but I'd just like to blame it on chasing. It's also been filled with even more goodies than I could have ever imagined. I had no clue how severe of an addiction I was getting myself into. The day before a slight risk it's "I need a break, I won't chase this" then the day of it's "There's no way in hell I'm missing this!" I just can't resist the urge to witness the shear (pun intended) power and beauty of mother nature. Every chase day waking up knowing that what I'll see that day will be different than every other storm I've seen so far is what keeps me out there. There's no doubt in my mind I went into this season 100% under prepared, but what I have walked away with is something that will help prepare me for many years to come.

I'll hopefully be getting all my videos and pictures up here in the following week. Congratulations to anybody who scored the day after day structure beasts across the high plains this past week!

6/9 Quick Summary & Today's Forecast

2010-06-10T00:37:00.001-06:00

I'm proud to say today was my first spot on forecast. Throughout the day it looked more and more like a cap bust but around 6:00 the first robust tower went up out on the western frindges of La Grange County in Wyoming. I was fortunate enough to chase the gorgeous supercell from life to elevated death over Scottsbluff, the same city that was pounded yesterday by another tornadic supercell. I don't know if the storm was ever tornado warned, but I heard it wasn't. There is no doubt in my mind it should have been tornado warned...I'll let the picture speak for the storm.

There was persistent low level rotation in this feature. As it got closer to my position, the rotation actually strengthened which had numerous chasers fleeing the scene. That is no doubt the most structured supercell I've seen to date. Unfortunately it died a rather quick death once it passed over me. I'll have to look into why this happened, but I predict it transitioned into a less favorable low level shear environment or a drier air mass. I'll be putting up a time lapse of the wall cloud once this chase-a-thon comes to a close.

If the NAM's 00z run holds up, I'll be stationing myself in Ft. Morgan for tomorrow's chase. I'm looking at two potential storm tracks: either the storms are going to fire off of the mountains relatively early (21zish) or they will form out near Ft. Morgan later in the day (23z-00z). I believe it will most likely be a combination of both, with the storms' tornado potential increasing later in the day. Here's to my fourth successful chase in a row!

*EDIT TO TOMORROW'S FORECAST* After actually looking at the NAM, I'm worried about the northerly low level winds in N/NE CO which makes me want to play the dryline bust near Goodland, KS. We will see.

Picture of the Year

2010-06-09T00:58:00.000-06:00

Although it seems to be a bit blurry, this is by far my picture of the year. This is the tornado warned storm east of Ft. Morgan on the 6th. At this point it was lining out, but was still an amazing sight to see. I'd be willing to call this the chase of the year...not because it was my 'storm of the year' but because of how perfect of a moment this was.

After blowing a hole in my tire on the 6th, I didn't know if I was going to be able to chase the NE CO/SE WY/SW NE setup the following day. Thankfully, Mark Farnik gave me a ring and offered me a spot in his car for a chase that ended up being by far most intense to date. I'll be posting video in the upcoming week but here are a few screen grabs.

Power flash from the brief tornado in Scottsbluff, NE.

The meso/hailcore about to eat Scottsbluff.

If Youtube cooperates, it should be up within the next two days depending on whether or not I chase tomorrow.

June 7 Day of Shost (Short Post)

2010-06-07T14:54:00.000-06:00

Well, after a morning of thinking I wasn't going to get to chase the atomic 6000+ CAPE setup today, fellow chaser Mark Farnik saved me. This will be my first chase with him and my second with Zach Young.

We're heading up I-25 towards Cheyenne where the ingredients for supercells and the attendant tornado threat will be at its greatest. With 3km EHI values projected to be 11+, anything that can survive in this heavily capped environment is going to go nuts. Hopefully we can score a nice tornado or two today!

And about the Shost thing...I felt the need to shorten "Short Post" just because....because.

June 5 Short Report

2010-06-05T23:07:00.000-06:00

Today was a relative success for both chasing and photography. No, there weren't any tornadoes or even any severe hail reports in my target area, but there was only a very slim chance of either occurring anyways.

I first went down on the Palmer around 3:00 to wait for initiation, but because it looked as if the cap was going to hold all day I decided to head home after a little scenic tour. After small showers started to break out signaling a weakening cap, I ran out of the house partially chased by the typical family drama. It turned out for the best as I headed south on I-225 towards Castle Rock and got to play in some rain. Just before sunset, I looked up to see the colors reflecting off my storm and low and behold there was a trio of mesos. It took a good twenty minutes to find a pull off from the highway, so the mesos had somewhat weakened but were still beautiful combined with the setting sun. Mid level clouds blocked just enough of the color so that just a thin line of pink slowly rose up the updraft(s) of the storm. Definitely a relaxing and awarding half tank chase.

Dying Meso in Background w/ CG

Updraft Lined Out w/ Backsheared Anvil Overhead

Damn Power Poles...(I' was on a hill, the picture isn't crooked :P)

More later!

6/5 Day-of Forecast

2010-06-05T11:43:00.001-06:00

So far things seem to be on track for the development of thunderstorms over the Palmer and possibly over the metro during this afternoon. Mesoanalysis is showing an axis of 500+ CAPE values spreading north and south from the most instability prone point on the Palmer (for a lack of a better term). If landspouts do appear to be a possibility I'll stick around just east of the main metro corridor in hopes of getting a landspout or two but if not I'll most likely head down to Castle Rock then adjust east or south accordingly. I'm thinking an area between Castle Rock and Limon would be optimal but after checking google maps and seeing the lack of a road network down there I'm much less inclined to head that way.

For now, the garage sale is good enough to keep me entertained. Nothing like seeing the married 50 year old mom get hit on by an elderly gentleman with a walker. He's a go getter.

It's Opposite Week

2010-06-05T00:18:00.000-06:00

It's been headline news lately that Mother Nature forgot that April Fools Days passed a while ago after several picturesque tornadoes touched down in SE colorado and extreme NW Oklahoma this Monday on a 2% risk day. I considered going out for this event but decided the chances seemed to be too low to even get a needle touchdown. Days like these just show the beauty of the High Plains. Congrats to anybody who scored.

I've been hidden from society the last few days because of my 103+ degree fever and other assorted goodies so I haven't gotten the chance to look at too many model runs. All I know is SPC has a 2% tornado risk smacked on and just east of the Palmer, and what does that mean? That means we're gettin' an F5 baby. I'll be heading out tomorrow around noon to hopefully catch my first violent tornado of my career and of the Palmer's career so that should be exciting.

Realistically I'll be heading out to play in some hail should anything pop up. There's a squashed area of instability on the Palmer so I don't think anything is going to hold up once it slides off the elevated terrain but we'll see. If I can make it out of bed tomorrow, I'll hopefully see you all out there.

June 1st Update

2010-06-01T11:55:00.000-06:00

Congratulations to anybody who scored the gorgeous tornadoes yesterday in SE Colorado. Picturesque tornadoes in Colorado seem to be the trend this year.

With that said, I'm somewhat perturbed by the fact that I had a feeling there were going to be tornadoes yesterday but I let the SPC forecast discourage me. The models had been showing precip down there every run and everything looked right for an isolated storm but alas, I have fallen to SPC forecasting.

Looking through the frustration, the first two thirds of this season have been a relative success. I've managed not to wreck my or anybody else's car and have pulled off a good amount of correct forecasts. Unfortunately the days I forecasted right turned out to be the non-tornadic days but part of that just comes down to luck of the draw. I missed the huge 2% day and ended up getting non-tornadic supercells on the 5% days but I can't control that. I've learned a lot from what to look for in the skies while waiting for storm initiation to how idiotic fellow chasers can be. After over 4500 miles through Colorado, Kansas, and Nebraska I'm willing to say I have gained a fair amount of experience for my first year of chasing being as young as I am. Not only will this increase my chances of seeing tornadoes for the rest of the 2010 season and hopefully in the 2011 season as well, but it has also taught me a lot about safe driving and more importantly a lot about myself. By having to drop years of saved money and mistakenly putting my college future at gamble all because of my new found passion I have realized just how much my future in meteorology means to me. I still have my regrets over certain events this season but that will always be the case. Being a perfectionist, I will never be completely happy with what I have achieved and that is what I hope will help push me to great heights in my future.

With summer break just off the horizon, I can begin to look at a daily approach to chasing. Next week looks to be a fairly active one across the Front Range so I'm hoping for some redemption in the near future. I'll have one week of chasing solo before I pack up and join Silver Lining Tours for a one week tour of hopefully more than just the Colorado plains in search of tornadoes and advise from some of the best in the business. Even though this May has been an active one for Colorado, the peak of the season has just arrived leaving plenty of time for me to score some more storms.

Yet again, thanks to those few people who read my blog for the support. Hopefully I'll see you all out there soon.

May 23, 2010 Nighttime Tornado NW Kansas

2010-05-29T21:33:00.001-06:00

cadasddas

Youtube has spited me by adding lines all over my video. I don't see how I deserve this after my hours of figuring out how to even upload the thing. I blame Obama.

Until later,
Ben

May 29/31 Forecast Quickie

2010-05-28T10:54:00.000-06:00

I haven't figured out how to post my video from Sunday (NW KS Tornadoes) but it will hopefully be up within the week. I left my computer on all night trying to upload it but it was still uploading when I got up. If anybody knows what's going on I'd appreciate a tip or two.

Tomorrow looks decent for the potential of severe weather over NE Colorado and W/NC Nebraska. I've probably waited too long to get a ride for this one so I'll most likely be playing the NE CO target. There will be enough shear and instability in this area to get a supercell going but it will probably just be a hailer with little tornado potential because of the lack of low level shear. I'm on a school computer right now so I can't post screens but I'll hopefully get around to that this afternoon if I have time.

Monday also looks like it could hold some severe potential across the far Eastern plains of Colorado. Daytime heating combined with marginal moisture should result in adequate instability for rubust convection near the I-70 corridor on a line from Limon to Burlington. It looks like this could be a Palmer day for initiation then the storms will move into better instability and shear as the day progresses. I'd be looking for a supercell with small tornado potential this day unless I can shift my target further south where low level shear is more ideal.

For the rest of the season I'll be focusing less on photography and more on the minute details of storms that I have seemed to have been missing. I just realized how low quality my camera is - its massive size threw me off. I'll be looking at buying a replacement camera for next season but for now I'm stuck with this one. I'll put it this way: my mom's 80 dollar 3x2 inch camera has more megapixels than my clunker.

I'm pleased with how much I've learned this year so far but I still think I need to push myself harder in the direction of educating myself instead of focusing on pictures that never seem to come out how I hope them to. I've been able to learn the broader ideas of forecasting and even some of the more minute details, but I still miss a lot of the more specific targets. Being a perfectionist, I won't be happy with myself until I get everything tweaked out. Other than that, I think I'm setting myself up very nicely for next season and then for my college "chasing career" and professional meteorology aspirations for lack of a better word.

I'm probably going to be busy tonight but I'll try and get a report from Wednesday up soon. In addition to that I'll be making a post analyzing the recent recklessness of chasers sometime this weekend (probably Sunday).

May 26 NE CO Chase Pic of the Day

2010-05-26T23:34:00.000-06:00

More later.

May 26 NE CO Chase Forecast

2010-05-26T08:55:00.000-06:00

I don't have much time to post screens of the shear/CAPE/etc. but I'll outline my plans.

I'll be leaving school at around 1:00 this afternoon and will head up towards the Brush area. I'm looking at a possible Cheyenne target as well as a line from Brush to Burlington so that would be putting me in the middle. Why I'm playing the middle target is I'll still have 5 hours to figure out where I want to go before the tornado potential spikes for the evening. I'll most likely play the southern target in hopes of a tail end charlie because it looks like everything could line out pretty early. I'll be making an 8z/9z update when I have more of an idea as to where the greatest tornado potential will be.

May 23 Prelim. Report, NW Kansas Tornadoes

2010-05-24T16:29:00.000-06:00

Zach Young and I went out to NW Kansas yesterday and nabbed three tornadoes thanks to his keen eyes.

The first storm of the day just east of Oakley, KS. This storm was messy looking on radar at the time but still meant business, being warned for tennis ball sized hail. We stuck around long enough to watch the shelf start to pass over us then got the hell out of there before Zach's car got obliterated.

We followed a decent looking inflow region of the storm but soon bailed west on I-70 because we doubted it could produce. It was on the wrong side of the storm (NW) and had no visible rotation. Good thing we left because a few minutes later there was relatively no significant inflow to be seen.

Heading went on I-70 we noticed the cell directly to our south had somewhat of a hook on the southwest side of it, but the only possible rotation signature on the velocity scans looked to be a glitch. Unfortunately we ended up missing the cone tornado the storm ended up dropping but got in good position for our first tornado of the day.

We stopped on a dirt road just south of Goodland looking at what appeared to be a rapidly rotating mesocyclone. After waiting around for a while we headed a little further down the road to get over a hill and once we crested it the storm spat out a nice looking tornado for about a half minute. I'm proud to say that we were the first spotters to call the storm in to the NWS and triggered the tornado warning which possible saved numerous lives. ;P Unfortunately I didn't have my tripod so none of my pictures turned out, but the tube was all the way to the ground. We stayed there and waited for the new-and-coming beast to give us another but it couldn't pulled it together after that. However, numerous funnels were observed but there was no confirmed touchdown on any of them.

We headed north up through Goodland to get back ahead of the storm in case it decided to pull itself together again, but with a lack of light it was hard to tell where the major rotation had moved to. Due to the intense lightning we were still able to see areas of rotation around us, just not how significant they were. While saying we needed to use the lightning to see any tornadoes directly near us or that were possibly deeper in the core, Zack spotted us our second tornado. I'll have video up in the near future.

We could see the tornado for about 5 minutes before it apparently got completely wrapped in rain, but a large cone was reported ten minutes after it disappeared so it was most likely still there. I failed to catch any video of our third tornado but soon after our second disappeared a fairly sized nader dropped in almost the same area as before.

We observed one final funnel near the end of our chase but other than that there is nothing else I can confirm. After looking at the video there were numerous very suspicious lowerings inside the hook area, you be the judge:

And earlier on:

All in all my best chase so far. I'll have video up within the next few days.

May 23 Forecast

2010-05-23T00:52:00.000-06:00

Looks like I'm going to be chasing tomorrow after all. I'll be targeting far western Kansas in hopes of storm initiation in late afternoon. It looks like the LLJ will spike up sometime around 4-5 which will help get storms going around that time period. That will leave a reasonable amount of time for a tornado and is in the perfect time period for structure shots. On to parameters.

There is plenty of directional shear to get any storms that fire rotating rapidly in the mid and lower levels which means tornado potential.

The hodo's aren't ideal for tornadoes but the potential is there for any supercell that develops.

My goals for this chase will be not messing up my forecast again and getting some structure shots. I'm going to say I hope there are no tornadoes in my target area tomorrow because it will give me luck.

I'm going to keep this post short and sweet because I want to get out there early tomorrow because: a) I need to get out of this house and b) I don't want to miss storm initiation again because I don't want to cry the entire drive home. That would just embarrass me.

Nevermind, I need to rant for a little.

I feel like I need to address the issue of chaser convergence and "yahoos" since every other chaser has taken their side on the topic. I haven't experienced much, or any, convergence of any kind because I have chased the relatively low probability days excluding one 5% day that ended in a blue sky bust. From watching the absurd videos of irresponsible chasers including one among my top respected I have made the conclusion that there needs to be some sort of crack down on these chasers. I do not want nor expect any laws regarding chasing to be pushed through legislation - all I'm saying is the other lowly chasers of our community need to look down on this sort of behavior. Social isolation has worked in other cases so hey, why not try it for this one. Once somebody is killed from a head on collision this will no longer be a topic for mere speculation: it will lead to consequences for not only the involved parties but also for any chasers who are responsible on the roads. I feel as if the outcome of this discussion reflects on me. There has been lots of speculation that most of the problematic chasers are the younger, newer chasers which would put me in that category. I would just like to establish that I am not into chasing for the adrenaline rush, or just because I think the Storm Chasers show is cool. I'm in it to learn more about the science that I am obsessed with and to possibly help set me up for my dream job in the future. I am hoping that the extra years of experience will help me land an in-field job so I can be in the front lines of tornado research. I know the chances of this happening are 1/100 (probably underestimating that), but I want to increase my chances as much as I can. Back to the Storm Chasers nonsense. I am in no way a fan of that show in this point in time. I started watching that show to help learn more of what it would be like in the field which was a total waste of time. Not only that, I do not appreciate the random folks the show is attracting to chasing who just want to feel cool by getting extremely close to a tornado. Not to mention I suspect there will be an accident from that in the near future as well. Finally, I am completely disgusted by the irresponsiblity of the TIV crew. There were two instances on May 19 of very dangerous driving from the crew of their team, one of which involved the actual TIV vehicle. I'm sorry but I don't want to see somebody hitting that beast head on. I hope other chasers will learn from what happened on May 19 and not try and pull a stunt like that. I'm proud to say that the drama on the ST forums has been smacking around the culprits. Hopefully their social consequences will be enough to deter other chasers from doing the same things. Unfortunately I believe it will come down to a serious accident occurring because of irresponsible chasing for this change to come. Props to anybody who believes in keeping it safe out there.

Good luck to anyone going out tomorrow and hopefully I'll see some of you out there, I need some sleep.

May 18 Report

2010-05-19T16:47:00.000-06:00

This was a pretty good day - not what I was hoping for but still a pretty good chase. I started off the day at 11 AM in hopes that I'd get a shot at the early storms up near Ft. Morgan but that never happened. The cap was a lot stronger than the models were predicting which ended up smashing any towers that tried to go up. I decided to head down to Limon around 2 PM when storms started firing down there and turned around to see my Ft. Morgan target firing up. I decided to keep on heading down towards Limon where atleast 10-15 towers were trying to go up, but my cell ended up becoming the most dominant.

I don't know how, but there was hair and dirt all over the mirrors inside my camera. I never managed to get it off but for some reason it didn't show up in my pictures. I think all it did was make then somewhat unfocused. Frustrating but at least they came out decent. Anyways, this is the beaut I got on from its birth to its death.

This was at or just after its peak strength. The lowering near the precip was rotating moderately at times and at one point started to form a nice funnel. Unfortunately after this it quickly died so it never got the chance to produce.

After this storm died I tried to catch up with the tornado warned storms further south but never made it in time thanks to poorly planned road construction on Highway 40. Overall a decent chase but only seeing a storm for an hour out of a nine hour chase put a damper on things. I don't know why the storms near Ft Morgan and the WY/CO border were the ones to produce yesterday...it is really frustrating me. Three or more decently sized tornadoes within a 90 minute drive of my house...ugh! One possible reason for this is there was a solid upper cloud deck for a good part of the late morning and early afternoon hours which most likely dropped the instability values significantly. There was definitely enough shear in place, but something else was killing off the storms. On a related note I believe the cap was never completely burned off which would have made it hard for my storms to keep going as they moved into the more stable air in NE CO.

I got home around 8:45 in a decently bad mood to find my ACT scores had come in. When I took the test I was sure I had done poorly but I somehow managed to pull off a 31. That will be good enough to get me in to OU but I'll still be retaking it in search of scholarships.

I'll most likely be going out for Friday's marginal set up in Wyoming or possibly even in northern Colorado. It looks like once the LLJ really starts kicking in there will be a significant cap over most of the instability but early to late afternoon supercells look like a possibility.

18z Update

2010-05-18T12:15:00.000-06:00

I'm currently sitting in Byers figuring out where to go. I am leaning towards getting to Flagler and camping out there until storms fire up. MD has been issued for all of E CO regarding very large hail/tornadoes.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0607
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1242 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2010
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WY...EXTREME SWRN NEB PNHDL...ERN CO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 181742Z - 181945Z
   
   MID-DAY MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THE LEE CYCLONE BEGINNING TO DEEPEN NE OF
   KPUB AND AN EVOLVING DENVER CYCLONE.  MID-LVL DRY SLOT WITHIN NOSE
   OF THE UPR LVL JET STREAK WAS SURGING INTO CO.  THERE HAVE BEEN
   VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID/HIGH-LVL CIRROFORM CLOUDS TO THE LEE OF THE
   MOUNTAINS...BUT MODEST HEATING HAS OCCURRED ACROSS ESPECIALLY ERN
   CO.  LLVL SELYS WERE TRANSPORTING UPR 40S/NEAR 50 DEG F SFC DEW
   POINTS TO THE E/NE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CYCLONES AND GIVEN STEEP
   LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT...MLCAPES WERE ALREADY APPROACHING 1000 J/KG.
   
   HIGH-BASED CBS HAVE BEEN INCREASING ALONG/W OF THE DIVIDE PER VSB
   SATL IMAGERY.  ACTIVITY MAY TRY TO ROOT INTO THE UNSTABLE BOUNDARY
   LAYER E OF THE FRONT RANGE THROUGH THE AFTN AS CINH CONTINUES TO
   ERODE /LIKELY WITH MID-60S TEMPERATURES/.  INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT
   MAY OCCUR INVOF THE DENVER CYCLONE WITH SUBSEQUENT DVLPMT SWD INTO
   SERN CO AFTER 20-21Z.  STORMS WILL MOVE ENE AND WILL GROW INTO
   SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL OWING TO INCREASING EFFECTIVE SHEAR.
    TORNADO THREATS WILL BE MAXIMIZED WITHIN THE DENVER CYCLONE/N SIDE
   OF PALMER DIVIDE...BUT ISOLD TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE IN
   THE DISCUSSION AREA.  EVENTUALLY... STORMS WILL CONGEAL INTO SVRL
   LINEAR SEGMENTS AS THEY MOVE/DEVELOP INTO THE LWR PLAINS TOWARD

NEB/KS BORDER WITH HIGH WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

May 18 Forecast 2: Who jinxed it this time?

2010-05-17T20:38:00.000-06:00

Well after barely being able to contain for my excitement for tomorrow I am totally crushed. The 00z NAM of the run has taken away 95% of my hopes for a chase tomorrow. There is still some instability but only 750-1250 compared to the 1500-2500 showed on the last few runs. In addition to that there is relatively no shear to be seen along the front range and the amount that is there won't amount to a strongly or even moderately rotating storm. It does show a potentially rotating storm near the CO/NE/KS tri-state border around 9:00 but I'm not willing to drive that far with no instability in the area. I will not be making a final decision until tomorrow morning and will make a final short post around 11:30 as to whether I am leaving or not.

May 18 Forecast 1

2010-05-16T21:36:00.001-06:00

Although there is still uncertainty regarding the instability and inhibition values of this set up, I believe there will be a supercell with decent tornado potential somewhere along the front range and nearby plains on Tuesday. The NAM has been going back and forth on capping, one run showing an unbreakable cap the next showing relatively no cap at all. If it comes down to there being a large cap over most of the front range I will play the southern end down near Las Animas. Every run has been consistent in showing a dry line play in this area.

It isn't a very well defined dry line but it is definitely there. My priority target is going to be the Palmer to Brush, CO line. By this I mean I'm planning on a storm potentially sparking off over the Palmer and then moving into the better moisture but with the small dryline there I might not need the Palmer. The last run has put decent instability in this area along with shear favorable for supercell and tornado development. When a storm forms it is going to rotate quickly given the forecasted low level shear profiles.

CAPE values in the 1-2k range

Nicely hooked hodo and shear profile favorable for supercells

Admittedly the southern play still does look a little bit better, but the closer I can stay to home the better because I have a final on Wednesday. The shear profiles look even better around 9 PM so I am hoping for a supercell at sunset.

I will be looking for a full fledged supercell with tornado potential on this day either between Limon and Brush or down near Las Animas. My main goals for this chase will be avoiding the potentially monster hail, getting some structure shots, and hopefully scoring my first tornado.

I'll post my next update tomorrow evening with finalized pre-RUC targets.

May 15 Chase;2 T-Warned Cells

2010-05-15T22:59:00.000-06:00

This morning I woke up at what I thought was 9:00 and checked my computer to see the models for this afternoon. I got confused when the RUC was already showing its 12:00 runs...turns out I forgot to turn my alarm on and woke up at 1:00 PM. There was already a tornado warned cell out north of Byers so I headed out that way. The cell wasn't that amazing, only sporting a small inflow band, a moderate rain free base, and a messy looking core.

Not much organization but I stuck around to see if it would do anything. At one point it did spit out a small funnel but other than that it was just a plain old thunderstorm. There wasn't even any severe hail in it.

I'm going to skip a lot of dilly dallying around with the southern end of the line out near Limon and talk about the T-warned supercell near Pueblo instead.

I really wish there was better lighting for this storm. I was on the wrong side of the storm yet again so not many of my pictures turned out well. At first there was a well defined area of rotation along with a suspicious lowering near the RFD:

I could have sworn that was a cone funnel, but it still wasn't tornado warned and there was no couplet on radar. Oh well. This is the closest it ever got to producing. Soon after the suspicious lower shriveled up, a nice looking meso/wall cloud formed farther north:

Notice the lowering on the right side of the photo along with a small stacked plates meso. This lowering had some rotation in it but quickly dissipated as the southern-most meso took over the show. This is from a half an hour later:

Unfortunately this is where my dirt road ended. Instead of searching for another option I just headed home...with radar showing 2.5" hail I really didn't want to risk getting cored in my newly repaired car.

I really needed this chase and mother nature delivered. Just some advise, never go chasing with only one contact. It gives you a really bad headache. Here are the best pictures of the day (other than the ones already posted):

Hopefully I'll score something on Tuesday. I'll post a forecast for that tomorrow.

RIP Pizza

2010-05-13T22:47:00.000-06:00

Damn tornadoes, when will they ever learn some decency:

1200

1 SSW MONETT

BARRY

3691

9393

NWS GROUND SURVEY CONFIRMS AN EF1 TORNADO INITIALLY TOUCHED DOWN NEAR PLYMOUTH HILL SUBDIVISION...THEN TRACKED THROUGH THE CASINO PARK AREA BEFORE DESTROYING THE PIZZA (SGF)

May 15 Forecast 1

2010-05-13T21:05:00.000-06:00

Looks like I will be going out to SE Colorado this Saturday, May 15. I'm looking at severe weather starting around 2-3 PM with the longer lived cell(s) developing supercell characteristics by around 6 PM. Not the ideal hodograph for tornadoes, but there still is a decent clockwise hook which means a weak tornado is not out of the picture. With CAPE values around 1000, I most likely won't be dealing with 2"+ hail so this will be a good break in chase for my car after the hail repair. I still won't be coring though seeing how 1" hail did some hefty damage. If I were to target now I'd be looking at a Walsh, Pratchet, Lamar triangle. My main goals for this chase will be figuring out some chasing strategies and getting some structure/lightning shots. Oh yea, and this will be my first chase with Baron GPS so I'll actually know where I am this time.

It looks like there could be a night time tornado or two in far SE CO/NW Texas Panhandle but I won't be staying that late because of curfew laws. Next update coming tomorrow evening, and I will address next week Tuesday in that post as well

May 14-20 Chase Potential

2010-05-12T17:19:00.000-06:00

FINALLY...ISOLATED STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR FROM LATER
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THEN INCREASES OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS FROM LATE SATURDAY MORNING
INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS DEEPER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE FLOWS INTO
THE REGION AND COMBINES WITH ADEQUATE WIND SHEAR. AT THIS
TIME...THE MOST INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS OF SATURDAY WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH...HAIL TO AROUND 1 INCH
IN DIAMETER...HAZARDOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...PERIODS OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

(Pueblo NWS Hazardous Weather Outlook)

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/pub/

That looks good right? I'm not so sure. I've been looking at the last few model runs and am not seeing anything that would even clue me in to any chance of severe weather this Friday. Am I missing something?

Well hopefully I am and there is a chase Friday, but on a more sure note, it looks like there will be a few days setting up in Eastern CO early next week. This is for next Tuesday:

I know I'm sinning by putting this up a week in advance but it got me too excited. It looks like a good upslope day for the Palmer and possibly even the Cheyenne Ridge. The one thing I'm worried about is it looks like the best shear is going to be in far SE Colorado but seeing how everything is likely to change I'm not worried about it. This is for Wednesday:

And on this day the GFS is breaking out major precip. around the I-70 corridor in addition to SW Kansas and SE Colorado. With mixing ratios in the 12+ range combining with decent shear and instability on both of these days, we could have some decent chasing opportunities if the GFS holds. I doubt it will completely take out that axis of instability on Tuesday so I'm counting on that day being the best for the Front Range.

That is all.

May Plans & 5/10 Outbreak Reflection

2010-05-11T20:42:00.000-06:00

I wish the best for anybody impacted by the tornadoes yesterday. It was tearing me apart watching the tornadoes move across Norman and the surrounding areas. I can't even imagine what it would be like to lose everything you have in the blink of an eye. Events like these remind us of how much we still have yet to learn about tornadoes. The one major thing that baffles me is the beast that formed just east of Norman. I was watching a local news station's live feed from a helicopter and there was no significant wall cloud or meso looking structure in the surrounding area when it developed. Although the storm was tornado warned, the main circulation was thought to be much further east than where it actually spawned. I'll post a much more detailed reflection on the outbreak once the next few days of severe weather are over.

This year hasn't turned out to be exactly what I had planned on. My hopes were to make it out for most if not all major outbreaks and more localized chasing days, but so far I have only been able to chase three times out of the metro area, one of which was just a I'm-tired-of-winter-get-me-some-convection chase back in March and another which landed me a hefty ticket. Admittedly it was my fault, but that still killed the 500 mile trip to Nebraska. I'm not a fan of towns that drop the speed limit by 15 nowhere near civilization then put a cop right next to the speed limit sign. Not to mention it was at night, too. Oh well, should have been paying better attention. I got two good chases fairly close to home that I am ecstatic about, but one of those landed my car in the shop for three weeks (still in there) and cost me a nice insurance bill which made me miss the rarely seen outbreak in SE Colorado a day later. Smack a low GPA and doubts if I'll be getting into OU on top of that, and it's been a fairly stressful and overall disappointing spring.

Enough of the negative, though. I've got the end of school coming up which means chasing every potential set up this late spring and summer and on top of that have a week tour with Silver Lining Tours. I will gain some valuable forecasting techniques on the tour as well as hopefully snagging a tornado or two or atleast a few decent storms. If not, then hey, I get a week vacation away from the parents, the friends, and just life in general. I have school off from May 27-June 1 so I'm hoping for a good chasing day or two in that time frame as well.

Don't get me wrong I am very grateful for being able to chase at such a young age, this season just isn't what I had hoped it would be. Then again that's the way it has been for most chasers before the recent outbreak. Cheers to anyone who scored yesterday.

Significant Tornado Outbreak Underway

2010-05-10T15:18:00.000-06:00

The hook from hell

Numerous tornadoes have been reported in Northern Oklahoma already from this beast isolated supercell. There are two intensifying cells moving directly towards OK City but it appears they will not go tornadic in time to hit the city. I will be posting updates every 30 minutes so stay tuned.

The Apocalypse Is Upon Us

2010-05-10T11:44:00.000-06:00

I don't know what to say. All I know is I'm missing something rarely seen.

The EHI values are literally off the charts...

And the helicity values are maxed out...

I am very worried for any towns in central OK/KS. Today is going to go huge. It is going to be near impossible to chase with storms flying at 50+ kts but that means an even more dangerous set up for locals.

If I were to chase today, I'd just chase the early set up in Western Kansas, nab me a good supe and a possible tornado or two, and let all the suicidal chasers stack up down in Oklahoma with the mob. Good luck to anyone going out and stay safe...this is ridiculous.

May 10 Forecast 3

2010-05-08T13:40:00.000-06:00

I'll just put it this way: if I were to only get to go chasing for one day the rest of the year, I would choose May 10 as my day if the models hold.

CIN appears to no longer be an issue setting the stage for an even more robust environment for storm development.

The NAM keeps pushing the system further and further east which is of concern because it is looking more and more like a two day chase which would be somewhat of an issue for me. I'm sure I could convince the parents to let me spend a night in a hotel but potentially missing class for two days would be the problem.
Right now it looks as if it's going to be in West Central OK, about 50 miles to the west of Oklahoma City and areas North and South of that. We're looking at an 8-10 hour drive which would make it hard to get up that early on Monday and then drive back home for Tuesday for whoever would be the driver of the car.

The SPC is using alarming wording, calling for tornadoes potentially of the likes of historic tornadoes such as Greensburg. I have the feeling that if the models hold, there will be another high risk issued for this day. I believe the only reason SPC isn't raising it to atleast a moderate for now is because of the differences in the NAM/GFS model runs.

If anybody from Denver is driving down to OK for this chase and has an open spot in their car, I'd appreciate the spot. I can bring Baron w/ GPS (finally got it fixed today) and will pay my way for gas, shelter, etc.

I will post another update this evening or tomorrow morning but for now I'll leave you with this:

Oh yea, I'll be going out tomorrow for some structure shots over the Palmer. Any storms should stay sub-severe.

May 10 Forecast 2

2010-05-08T00:49:00.000-06:00

Well, May 10 looks absolutely fantastic for a potential tornado outbreak along the Eastern TX Panhandle and Western Oklahoma regions.

We're looking at EHI values in the 10+ area along with more than adequate amounts of shear and to die for hodographs.

I am wanting to target the NE Texas panhandle/immediate areas in OK because of the smaller cap there, but if the NAM lowers the CIN values further into W OK that will be the best target area.

I am worried if I am going to be able to get out there for this one because I still don't have a ride. I'm hoping something will come up because this day has some significant potential if the cap doesn't hold things back.

May 10 Forecast/Oil Spill

2010-05-06T18:35:00.000-06:00

Sorry for not making the promised link to my new blog, I've been so busy I haven't even gotten around to making it yet. That'll come back up sometime later.

For now, it's all about next Monday. There is some significant severe potential with this system, but the cap is getting in the way of a more widespread outbreak. That's good in the way of reducing the chances a town gets hit by a nader but that means there is going to be mass chaos around the small target area that is showing right now. The last few runs have been more consistent with an area around Salina, KS looking prime for storm initiation with a possible narrow corridor of storms down towards Wichita. I won't post any pictures of the models because I really don't trust the GFS so once it gets onto the NAM I will start doing that. I don't have my own car right now so I'm hoping to get a spot in somebody else's car but we'll see how it plays out.

Enough with weather, I really need to get this off my chest. I have been watching the news over the past week in utter disgust at the recent oil "spill". Not only did the government not have the law required gas cleanup supplies ready, BP violated numerous laws as to how they were supposed to pump the oil. If it hasn't effected you yet down to a personal level, think of it this way. There is no way we are getting all of that oil out of the ocean. It will always be there. Not only this, for the next few weeks or more until they get their stuff (keeping it clean) figured out, thousands of animals are being killed. This not only will probably permanently change the gulf coast eco system, it is also destroying people's lives who rely on fishing for money. The world's eyes has been on us for the last few days, and we have completely and utterly failed. We have not had one plan that is a "most likely will work" scenario and we are permanently polluting the world's oceans when we are supposed to be cutting back on pollution. There is no way BP is going to be able to pay for the cleanup so it will ultimately lead to us paying for BP's mistake. I'm done ranting for now, but this will have a more than significantly significant impact on our country and the Gulf of Mexico. Tis a shame.

But Monday is lookin good and atleast there hopefully won't be oil in our hail.

Not Just a Weather Geek

2010-05-02T21:38:00.000-06:00

This post isn't weather related but I thought I'd post it just in case anyone is interested.

I'm opening up another blog that I am devoting to all of my writing. I have always been a fan of writing but have just recently developed my own style and started to treat it more seriously. Most of my pieces are very symbolic and some can be pretty dark, but they're mostly based off of my past experiences in life and just general teenage struggles so that comes with the territory. They aren't copyrighted or anything I just decided that I might as well post them somewhere instead of having them sit around meaninglessly. I'll hopefully be making a post every week or so. I'll have a link for the site tomorrow.

It looks like Colorado will be having a down period for the next few weeks. After a few days of sunny and 60's and 70's it's back to the 50's and chances of snow for a while. Hopefully after that it starts warming up because I'm starting to think there's some global cooling happening here.

Live Updates, April 30th Tornado Outbreak

2010-04-30T20:23:00.005-06:00

UPDATE AS OF 8:20 MOUNTAIN: A trailer park has reportedly been hit along with multiple missing person reports. This is information gathered from the Live State Police radio feed. Here is a radar grab from one of the storms with a tornado currently on the ground:

Check back every 10 minutes for current information on the current tornado outbreak.

UPDATE AS OF 8:35: The SPC has upgraded the risk for tornadoes to 95% and the risk of f2+ tornadoes to 70%. A PDS watch box has been issued until 4 A.M. PDS stands for "Particularly Dangerous Situation. The Arkansas State Police have sent all units in the surrounding area to patrol for significant tornado damage.

UPDATE AS OF 8:55: A State Patrolman has confirmed heavy damage to a town to the SE of Little Rock. He reported houses blown over, and described the town as having "major problems." Some of the supercells in Arkansas have congealed into a larger mass which will reduce the tornado threat for those particular storms, but there are still 5-6 strong supercells downstream. There are still a few tornado warned supercells in Eastern Missouri as well.

UPDATE AS OF 9:00: Fox News is reporting atleast 3 dead, 25 injured in Arkansas. Again, these are not 100% confirmed. A local fire dept. received damage but there are no reports of injuries related to this damage.

UPDATE AS OF 9:24:

http://sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-ash1/hs345.ash1/29418_403137809112_62408869112_3783711_5423893_n.jpg

Copy and paste for damage photo (I don't want to deal with copyright issues if there are any).

This is a picture of the damage done to the local fire department. This just shows the scope of the potential damage across Arkansas.

UPDATE AS OF 10:08:

Conway Co. Arkansas 2 tornadoes confirmed. 6 houses destroyed. Gov. Beebe has sent the National Guard to White Co.

Primary storm of concern:

Very impressive hook and couplet signatures persistent for about 15-20 minutes now and strengthening.

New development is occurring in the SW corner of the watch box.

High Risk Issued, Live Updates

2010-04-30T20:07:00.002-06:00

A potentially significant severe weather event is unfolding across most of Arkansas and southern Missouri. The SPC had just issued an MD using very strong wording when suggesting the potential for strong tornadoes.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 116...
   
   VALID 010026Z - 010230Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 116 CONTINUES.
   
   DANGEROUS TORNADO SITUATION UNFOLDING ACROSS AR/SRN MO THIS
   EVENING...AND THE TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
   HOURS.
   
   MULTIPLE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY IN A BROKEN BAND
   FROM N OF TXK TO NW OF LIT INTO S CENTRAL MO.  THESE STORMS ARE
   MOVING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER
   SHEAR...AS WELL AS RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTABILITY
   /PER THE 00Z LZK SOUNDING/.  GIVEN THE OBSERVED STORM STRUCTURES AND
   ENVIRONMENT...A FEW STRONG/LONG-TRACK TORNADOES NOW APPEAR LIKELY. 
   THE CONVECTIVE MODE AND STORM ENVIRONMENT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE
   SUBSTANTIALLY INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...THUS THE SIGNIFICANT
   TORNADO THREAT WILL PERSIST WELL AFTER DARK.

If the threat verifies and there are multiple long track tornadoes, the risk of losing life would be very high. As of now there are 11 tornado warnings along with atleast 2 probably tornadoes already occuring. During the day this would be disturbing news, but going into the night time hours it becomes terrifying. After a slow start to the season many chasers were begging for some more tornado action, but nothing like this and never at night.

UPDATE: There is a reported tornado down in residential areas with a trailer park town already possibly hit.

http://thv2.com/Watch_THV2_Online.aspx for live feed.

April 21 Report, thoughts on April 28

2010-04-28T22:35:00.000-06:00

Did you really think I could leave you? I've gotten over the worst my anger at chasing and mother nature - don't hate the game hate the player right?

I'll start with the ending:

And now I'll tell the tale.

After hearing a rumble of thunder, I left my house expecting to photograph a typical spring time upslope thunderstorm. I got this instead:

Yes, I still get overly excited when I see a meso, so when I saw this I was ecstatic. I stayed and watched the meso start to gain strength then die out, then got hit by some decently sized hail which left me with one small dent on the hood of my car.

That should have been an omen but being my naive self I saw a meso indicator on Baron and decided to try and catch back up with the storm. At this point the front of the core was just reaching E-470 about 5-10 miles north of the Southlands mall.

I headed up that way and when I got to the E-470 on ramp, I got a call from my mom saying she was getting pounded by "massive" hail. Second bad omen.

Then on the turn ramp for I-70, I started getting hit by about nickel sized hail but decided to keep on going. I didn't know why at the time, but at around this time Baron stopped working. Third bad omen. I later found that my radio receptor box had fallen off my dashboard...how could I have missed that?

I really don't want to relive the tragedy quite yet, the wound is still bleeding, so I'll just sum it up quickly. I got cored for 20+ minutes, broke my windshield wipers, got 150+ hail dents, and missed a meeting for my job. Yes, there were lots of dents. A quote from the repair man..."There are dents in side of dents and dents in between those dents."

I think I'm going to write a dramatic short story about that just because it sounds entertaining...that'll be coming this weekend.

Now on to Thursday, April 22. The day I will never forget and will probably cry myself to sleep over until I'm out of grad school. As everyone knows, there were some extremely photogenic tornadoes in SE Colorado. I don't know how many there actually were, but that one storm would have put me over my year long goal. I can't take the pain of talking about that storm so I'm just going to skip to the pathetic forecasting job done by the local media.

Kathy Sabine said there would be none, nadda, zip severe weather along the immediate front range that day. All I'm going to say is my forecast was dead on and the pros at 9news were completely off. A tornado warned storm ended up popping up over the metro area, spitting out golf ball sized hail and multiple funnels. I just think it's amusing how cherry creek school district used their tornado warning drill once the storm had already passed.

That's probably all a jumbled mess and you can blame that on the ACT. Whoever wrote the science section on that test is trying to keep our nation's youth from going to college.

I'm going to be making a post of my favorite pictures so far this year tomorrow and hopefully some video of the hail, so check back for that. If you'd like to see my full gallery feel free to check it out on my facebook profile, anybody should be able to see it.

A Confusing Situation

2010-04-23T18:57:00.000-06:00

Well, I guess I messed up kinda bad. I got caught in the hail core of the tornado warned supercell on Wednesday and my brain pretty much shut down. I forgot that I should probably get out of the hail before my car got destroyed. I didn't think that small of hail could dent my car like it did, but hey I guess we all learn something new every day.

So here was the situation: The storm was moving to the NE and its core was right over I-70, so, thinking that I'd be able to get behind it to go around the storm I decided to go East on I-70. Bad Idea. I got ahead of the rotation and sat around for a bit with fellow chaser Zach Young (who I had just met). I then headed to Bennet to try and stay ahead of the rotation, but got cored instead. What really kills me is if I had driven merely one or two miles to the south I would have been out of the core, but no, I decided to sit and get video. The thing pretty much stopped moving right over Bennet and pounded me and about 50 other cars for over 15 minutes. I managed to break my windshield wipers in that time so after that I couldn't really do anything about getting out of the core.

I don't know what I was thinking, or lack thereof, but I think this is supposed to be cluing me in to the fact that maybe I'm not mature enough to chase. Or I don't know enough about chasing to chase safely.

My car isn't destroyed by a long shot, but it is covered in over 100 half inch to one inch dents. That means to repair the damage we have to peel off the top and sides of my car and replace them...we're looking at a lot of money. Basically, my car is only two weeks old and is already covered in over a hundred dents. Do I want my car looking like that for the entire time I have it, or do I quit chasing, save a lot of money and wait until the car is older and I'm in college. Insurance will cover the repair but our rates are going to be raised quite a bit. I just think I'm way too young to be messing around with this kind of money. In hindsight, I would have tried harder to convince my parents to get a used car so they weren't so upset over the hail dents.

It just kills me knowing that had I been paying attention I could have saved myself this whole mess. Oh well, it's here to stay and I have to deal with it.

Another factor is that this is the last semester of school colleges will be looking at and my grades are slowly falling. I can still salvage my gpa and hopefully get back into honor roll but I don't need that additional stress with getting into college on top of the fact that I'm already on the border. My stress levels are going to be over the top until I know I'm into college because my entire future is riding on it.

My last post stands as in right now I am thinking I won't be chasing until college, or possibly next year. Don't get me wrong, I am obsessed with chasing, but I am looking at the long term situation, not just what I want to do now.

Obviously this is a very tough decision but I think I've made the right one. I will keep my blog open just on the sly chance that I change my mind.

Last Post

2010-04-22T17:35:00.000-06:00

I will no longer be chasing until I get out of the house and get to college so I'm closing down the Upslope Chaos blog. Thanks to anyone who read my blog.

April 21 Chase

2010-04-21T21:56:00.000-06:00

I was going to write a report for today's chase but I'm too wiped out to write a somewhat readable report. I'll make one report for both today and tomorrow's chases probably Friday night. I'll just post this picture and leave it up to you to decide why my Dad is so upset tonight. No that isn't snow.

April 22 Forecast

2010-04-20T21:01:00.000-06:00

Thursday holds potential to be a fairly large sized severe outbreak if the models hold. It looks like areas around the Texas Panhandle will hold the best potential for supercells and a few tornadoes, but because I can't make it that far south and the entire chasing community has already over analyzed this set up I will focus on a smaller area in SE Colorado instead.

There is a smaller amount of CAPE in my target area, but still enough to get things going. With an overly adequate amount of shear and some upper level support to boot I think we can get things going down there. Also, the hodograph is suggestive or tornado potential:

The dewpoints aren't as high as they could be, forecasted to be around 50-55, but the NAM has been overshooting the dewpoints lately so I'm putting it closer to 45-50, maybe the lower 50s. This is relatively low for tornadoes but if I think there is even a small chance, I am going.

I'm thinking about somewhere between Lamar to Kit Carson.

If anybody reading my blog has any opinions/suggestions about my forecasts or anything else I say in my blog, I would love to hear them.

April 19 Chase Report

2010-04-19T21:58:00.001-06:00

Today was one of those days that will decide future chasing decisions for a long time to come. After nearly all of my hopes were dashed by this morning's RUC runs, I still decided to head out and try and get an upslope thunderstorm or two.

I started my chase at about 1:15 this afternoon and headed down to Limon where I saw some marginal LP supercell structure but the storm quickly deflated. Noticing a more promising tower going up down south, I headed down there and ended up getting on what was most likely the storm of the day (I will call it that unless I see some pictures of the storms that went up around Limon in the late afternoon). Unfortunately I was on the east side of the storm so all I got was a rain shaft and a very small side view of the updraft, but what I saw was very impressive. By the time I found an east-west road, this is what was left:

It seemed to go more LP as it headed south, but right before this there was a decent rain shaft. At this point it was starting to die out, but still some good structure.

Should have taken more pics of the storm before it hit this stage, but I was too busy trying to find a road.

I then headed back up north to go back home when this storm popped up over Castle Rock:

So I stopped to get some pictures but when I did it didn't look too great anymore. Another cell was going up next to it so I stopped to get this one in its early stages instead:

Anvil from southern storm

New storm

I started to head home again, but when I turned the corner around Castle Rock, I saw another supercell looking structure. It was fairly dark so I tried to do some longer exposures but I guess you are supposed to clean your lense before you do that:

This picture has been enhanced so you can see the inflow structure. I am thinking the one on the right is the old meso and the one on the left is the new, or maybe they are separate storms. Too bad there wasn't better lighting for this.

In the end this turned out to be a very successful chase for mid-April in Colorado.

Maybe somebody who was watching GR3/actually chasing the storms up near Limon can tell me what they looked like? That would be appreciated.

G'night.

April 19 Chasing Forecast

2010-04-18T22:02:00.000-06:00

With some finagling and some risky business, I have opened up tomorrow for chasing. I am some what hesitant with the new model runs because it looks like the shear will be more linear and not so much directional. This means severe potential, yes, but I was hoping more for some marginal supercellular structure. Once this gets onto the RUC tomorrow I will make my final decision, but for now I am putting it at a 75% likelihood of chasing.

For some reason it isn't letting me post pictures right now but I am planning on sitting around Clifford, CO and waiting for the storm to come to me. I am hoping for my storm to form closer to the foothills and build as it gets to me but because of the forecasted Southeasterly storm movement of the storms tomorrow I may have to adjust my target a bit to the south. Hopefully there will be CAPE values of around 500-1000 and dewpoints in the upper 40s/lower 50s for my target area.

There is a little bit better of a set up further Northeast closer to Wray, CO but I don't want to make a three hour drive for such a marginal set up.

I got to see the storms go up over the Palmer today but all of my pictures were overexposed so I won't bother posting any...hopefully I'll get some better ones tomorrow.

April 19/April 22 Forecast

2010-04-18T15:05:00.000-06:00

I don't know if I will be chasing these events. I have some personal conflict going on with my chasing/life priorities along with some other people influencing my decisions. The situation I got myself into is cleaning up well so that will probably not be an issue come tomorrow. I will maybe talk about this more in a week or two.

Tomorrow is looking like a possibly severe day over parts of Eastern Central CO. I am looking at somewhere between Lamar and Limon, but there is also another area closer to the KS/CO/NE tri-point that looks somewhat interesting.

With some decent cape to get things going and decent shear I believe there will be one or two severe storms tomorrow with a chance for a possible photogenic supercell or two.

The shear is more favorable on the KS/NE/CO tri-point area so that will be where I would probably be targeting if I go chasing.

April 22 has some pretty good severe potential but I don't think it deserves the 6 day out severe forecast by the SPC.

Here's a forecast hodo for around the Goodland area:

The shear profiles are favorable for supercells and possibly tornadoes all the way from NW KS to Texas/OK so this will definately to be an event to monitor. I will not be chasing this event.

As I speak there is a nice little storm going up over the divide:

I'd just like to finish off by thanking anybody who reads my blog for the support.

I'll try and post an update later tonight regarding tomorrow's potential chase.

April 13 Chase Report/Bad News

2010-04-14T21:35:00.001-06:00

Yesterday was my best chase to date by far (which isn't saying much). I scored a small cone funnel/rotating scud, a lot of nickel sized hail, some decent flooding, some short-lived supercellular structure, and an amazing sunset to boot.

To start off with, on the way up to my target area I got pulled over for going 3 over the speed limit which, excuse my opinion, isn't a good excuse to pull somebody over. I ended up only getting a warning and the State Patrolman was nice, but it still wasted 10-15 minutes of my time. That put me a little bit behind the initial burst of the line, but ended up probably putting me into a better position than I would have been had I gone after the initial storms. I saw some isolated storms firing along the CO/NE/KS border and decided to wait around for those. Apparently God was mad at me for going 3 over so he tossed a rock into my car...I never expected my first dent to come from inflow winds. After getting away from the intense inflow winds from the developing line, I found myself in front of a very picturesque LP-ish looking storm:

For a moment it looked like its updraft had puckered out but soon enough it found another burst of energy and visibly developed some minor supercellular structure in the form of a bell shaped base. I eventually let the storm go over me, trying to get some good structure shots on the other side but unfortunately there were too many mid and low level clouds to get a decent shot. I am bewildered as to how this storm eventually went tornado warned because by the time I left it it looked like a mess:

That might be a developing RFD back there (rear-flank downdraft) but other than that I see no other signs of this storm having tornado potential.

Ditching out on this pathetic looking storm I scrambled south to a storm with an apparent developing meso (radar indicated) but the storm gave out before I could make it. I was disappointed at the time but had I known what I was about to get treated to, I would have been the exact opposite.

As I tried to catch up to the now tornado warned cell to my north, I somehow managed to find a rather decent patch of rain free base (I'm assuming from the warned storm) in the middle of the HP mess. Looking to my east, I was surprisingly treated to a moderately sized piece of rotating scud/possible funnel. I tried to grab out my camcorder to get a shot of it but right as I turned it on the area of interest became shrouded in rain. However there was still some small-scale rotation on a slightly lowered area of the storm but I didn't stick around for long because the now intensifying line was directly behind me.

I don't know what was going on, but I am leaning towards the line was taking over a smaller line of storms directly in front of it, but all of the sudden I found myself looking a very impressive sight to say the least. I was surrounded by apparent hail cores and torrential rain but found myself staring up at a very picturesque sight.

Apparent Outflow Region

I am assuming there were outflow winds from the stronger rear line interacting with the inflow base of the smaller line in front of it but when I looked up in front of me there was a very decent area of rotation right in front of me. You can see the area of interest at the top of the picture.

And here's a screen grab from the video:

This was definately the highlight of the trip not because it had tornado potential (it didn't), but because it was such a stunning sight.

After this I witnessed some street flooding in Ogallala and after somehow breaking my wi-fi card and getting lost in the middle of nowhere for atleast an hour and a half, I got to observe my best sunset to date. These photos have not been touched up.

It started out like this...

And went to this...

And then this...

I've made this way too long so I'll make the bad news short. I won't be chasing for possibly a month and I'll just leave it at that. Hopefully I can get out sooner but it's not looking good.

Luckily I got in a good chase with plenty of pictures before this happened. I will still update my blog every once in a while so stay tuned. I'll be back.

Total Miles: 1956

Tornadoes: 0

April 13 Forecast/Chasing Plans

2010-04-12T21:17:00.000-06:00

We're finally only a day out from the first possible severe reports in Colorado. This is what I've been staring at all afternoon:

There is a line of 50+ dewpoints all along Eastern Colorado with the NAM wanting to push closer to 60 up near the Kansas, Colorado, Nebraska border.

There is plenty of shear for very large hail, and plenty of wind for some damaging wind gusts along most of this line of high dp's.

Also a very decent amount of low level vorticity (and upper level vorticity) to play around with. I'd say we could get some imbedded rotating storms in here.

There are two areas I am thinking about playing and my decision will have to come down to the morning model runs. I am thinking more so about the Kansa/Colorado/Nebraska tri-state area, but maybe starting out a little west of that for some possible rotating more isolated storms earlier in the day. These thunderstorms will eventually line out into a broken line format according to the local NWS offices and the current models. I believe we could see one or two tornado reports in this area. Another area I am looking at is the tail-end charlie, way down near SE Colorado. I like the chance of this cell being more isolated and with the decent amount of supercell ingredients that will hopefully be in place down there as well, I can see this cell turning possibly into a supercell with tornado potential. The only thing that has me hesitating on the very isolated tornado potential of this system is the moderate dp's. If the dewpoints were higher, I'd be more confident about tornadoes.

My main goal with tomorrow's chase is to get in a good early Colorado severe season chase, hopefully score some rotating updrafts, get some 1" + hail, and maybe an isolated supercell...and of course some pictures to go along with it.

The SPC is mostly agreeing with my thoughts thus far so hopefully that will remain the case.

Tuesday Thunderstorms/Potential Weekend Setup

2010-04-11T21:33:00.000-06:00

So today, uhm. It was a good thinking day. I think I figured out some stuff in my life and that's good, right? Oh yea, I saw some cumulus clouds too. That was pretty neat. Uhhh yea, then I met a nice state trooper, but that's for another time.

Tonight would have been an early to bed, pity myself night except for the fact that Tuesday is coming. No not next Tuesday...I'm talking about 4/13. Slap 750+ J KG of juice on top of a front moving through on top of some deep layer shear on top of some good moisture (yea that just happened) and you get a line of thunderstorms on the Colorado Plains. That's all jolly and yes, I will probably end up chasing this line just for some Colorado fun, but the real jewel here is the possible "Tail End Charlie." The Pueblo NWS office even mentioned a possible severe weather set-up on Tuesday, I'm assuming from this possible supercell. Let's hope it follows through. Specifics/

Murphy's Law has it that now that I bring it up, the GFS will decide to change its mind, but here goes. There is a possible set-up somewhere in Kansas/OK on Saturday and I'm just going to say it could be big, and it will probably not be there by the time Saturday comes around. But hey, it will get me through this next week.

Also, there is a slight chance of thunderstorms (not severe) across the Eastern parts of Colorado Wednesday through this weekend so I'll keep an eye on that for any possible lightning opportunities.

The Skunk, the Raccoon, and the Bust

2010-04-11T12:34:00.000-06:00

Well it's been an interesting ride here to say the least. I have been nearly suffocated by skunk...smell...atleast 5 times, had to dodge a family of raccoons, and got to witness some sort of high profile pull over (three cops surrounding one car on the side of the road). And now I'm sitting here in Colby, KS, realizing that three hour drive will be for not. The RUC is slapping on some pretty hefty CIN values most likely due to an EML capping inversion sitting over most of the plains right now. The NAM isn't too much more optimistic with a few spots of CIN values in the 50s with a few areas further south where the cap has completely deteriorated. The GFS, which I do not trust at all, is wanting to put some precip breaking out around where I am at around 4-5 oclock.

The local NWS office in Goodland has said that there will be a chance of some non-severe thunderstorms a little east of me, so on a positive note maybe I'll get to see a rainbow...I guess I need a picture of one for my physics class so that might make me cry less hard tonight.

For now I will cheer for the GFS and sit here in my lawn chair in Colby, KS, looking like a run-a-way. Enjoy the sunny skies and low 70s back in Denver....

April 11 Chase Forecast

2010-04-10T23:33:00.000-06:00

I've convinced the parents that I will be fine using Google Maps tomorrow chasing due to the lack of any real significant tornado threat so I will be waking up at around 7 and hopefully heading out around 8 to get to my target area early.

As of the current model runs I will be targeting SW Kansas where there will possibly be around 1500 CAPE and dewpoints around 55. There is a large hole in the cap right around the area I am looking at so I'm hoping a storm or two could pop up in that area.

Another area of interest right now is, believe it or not, SE Colorado. The WRF-NMM and the NAM both want to put a thunderstorm down there. Whether or not this storm could last longer than 10 minutes is a question without any mentionable upper level winds but hey, it's a colorado thunderstorm. At that, the WRF-NMM wants to give it a 4 hour lifespan and puts not only one but 2 storms down there.

I won't bother mentioning the North-Central OK target because of the massive amount of CIN down there.

So the basic plan is: Head to Southwestern Kansas and get there around 1ish, leaving time to adjust from there if needed. This also puts me directly east of the possible Colorado storm so I can bolt back west if need be.

Finally, I would like to mention how much I hate the Texas set-up for being so far away from Colorado. And at that I am headed to bed.

Good luck to anyone who is headed out tomorrow.

No Chasing, Thank You XM

2010-04-10T21:26:00.000-06:00

I don't understand how it can be hard to find halfway intelligent people to hire when 10% of our nation is out of a job. XM has managed to find a way to make it difficult so I am without radar data until they can figure out how to read their manual. So to start out with, I had to talk to two managers to even get my subscription started. I gave them the package name and they somehow couldn't find it. So I haven't chased in a month, and now I'm yet again not getting any radar data. I call them and what do they say? I haven't payed for it this month, but I definately have a rather large subscription charge on my bill for this month and last month. So now they have to figure out what to do and I have no Threat Net until then which means no chasing.

My parents are really worried about how safe this whole chasing thing is so as an agreement I said I wouldn't go out without having GPS and radar data with me. On a scale of annoyed to annoyed I'm pretty annoyed right now. The first local chases (although not tornado threats or probably not severe threats) are coming up this week and it looks like I'll be sitting them out.

Additionally I was going to escape from life and go chasing tomorrow but that will not be happening either.

Thunderstorms over the next few days?

2010-04-10T01:40:00.000-06:00

I'm really tired and wanting to go to sleep so give me a break on the quality of this.

Basically, I'm looking at an Upslope? storm forming over the Palmer Divide tomorrow afternoon around 3-6 PM. I'm putting it close to 5ish (yes, I admit because the WRF NMM is putting it at that time). With limited moisture and almost no instability, it is probably going to be more like a rain shower but there is hope for some early spring thunder.

Then on Sunday the NAM is showing a decent surge of moisture coming in with some marginal instability packed in there around the 45-50 DP areas. I am very disappointed because although we have two of the three major ingredients for an elevated severe storm (hail/wind threats), there is pretty much no wind to be seen in the upper and mid levels (700-500 mb). Yes, if a system came through right now it would probably change the DP's/instability values but it still is torture seeing that somewhat decent CAPE and the first sign of gulf moisture but no winds to help out a storm. Still, the NAM wants to break out a few upslope storms and a storm in southeast CO but I am doubtful. There may be some severe in SW Kansas but I am not going to chase a set up with no wind...

And on to Monday. This stabs me in the heart. The NAM is pushing a small disturbance through CO this day, sparking off a fairly decent amount of convection in Southeastern-ish Colorado but again...no wind. I take that back, it wants to put 30 kts of 700 mb wind in that area but I doubt it will be that high. With around 1000+ CAPE down there, a small disturbance (decent vorticity and some insane verital velocity values), and some moderate DP's, I want to go down there just because I feel guilty letting those ingredients go to waste. Again, the NAM is slapping some decent convection down there but due to my lack of experience and the large area it is covering it could just be wanting to put some rain down there (no T-storms).

Anyways, I thought I'd complain about the lack of wind for a while. We are also going into a potential 2 week lapse of any "classic" severe weather patterns. Knowing the GFS that could mean we're having a tornado outbreak in there but it doesn't look good.

Now to sleep, I'll try and be up by 2 in the afternoon....maybe.

Severe Outbreak Underway

2010-04-05T22:44:00.000-06:00

Severe storms have been raging across the Midwest through the East since around 8 this morning and are showing little sign of stopping. What was once a hopeful tornado outbreak across Southern Ohio/Northern Missouri/parts of Kansas turned into a less potent but still destructive severe weather event. Here are the reports so far:

Although the most significant severe weather is done with for the day, I expect atleast a dozen more wind/hail reports. In reality there will probably be more than that seeing how many warnings/watch boxes are still up:

The small blue dots are the warnings active and the larger blue boxes are the ongoing watches. Even though there was only a single tornado report throughout this entire event (when it was expected to potentially drop a few significant -EF2 -> EF5- tornadoes), it was the first serious severe outbreak of the year. After a few months of seeing only very minor outbreaks, it was good to finally see mother nature's steam finally kicking in.

I will probably be online-chasing the event tomorrow as well but I have two papers to write that are due Wednesday so I will probably only have time for one quick post.

Prove Me Wrong Again, Please

2010-04-05T19:05:00.001-06:00

And I am wrong...again. What I thought was a sure cap-bust has now turned into a tornado watch and an explosive line of cells going up in NE Kansas. A newly developed supercell has gone from a literal open space on the radar to having a well defined hook in a matter of half an hour. Explosive? Explosive indeed. It looks like this potent system is ready to hurl its best at us just at a different time than I had expected (and not in my would-be-target...). It looks like most chasers had given up on the system and headed different directions, so hopefully some will be able to recover and get back to this amazing system in time. However, it will be night time chasing with very likely tornadoes so this will be a very dangerous chase if anybody heads over.

Mother Says No

2010-04-05T17:46:00.000-06:00

I was wrong, SPC was wrong, everyone was wrong. I believe this says it all...

Notice the two small clusters of chasers...with no storms.

While this was going on on the other side of the Slight Risk...

Tornado Watch/Tornado Report/ Cluster of cells

Hey, maybe we were right for the first half of the day?

Hail Reports from before 9:00 GMT, Should-Be-Gone Watch Box

Early in the morning, two apparent supercells and numerous severe storms trecked across Kansas and Missouri, but no chasers were there to observe them (as far as I am aware).

The latest RUC models are showing the cap increasing or staying the same after nightfall over most of the "bust" areas...except for one small sliver in far NW Oklahoma. A Mesoscale Discussion has been released regarding this area, but there still is some doubt as to whether the cap can be broken. I hope something does pop somewhere just so this extremely potent system doesn't go to waste.

Or not...

2010-04-04T21:57:00.000-06:00

After thinking hard for the last few hours, I have decided that I am not going to chase any of the setups of this coming week. There will *probably* be a storm or two somewhere along the dryline, but it isn't worth it to drive a 5-7 hour one way drive to possibly see a storm this early in the season. The only other option would be to wake up very early, miss the first day back after break (given I have to make up 4 tests from missing last Friday), and then have a probably 20 hour day of driving..no thanks. That's unsafe and there will be closer and better set ups later in the season.

I am not saying there isn't a reason to chase tomorrow because there are plenty, I just don't feel like it is worth the grade dropping risk at school or the long drive out there.

I don't know what the SPC has been smoking down in Norman, but there should definately be at least a see text for this setup, but we will see.

Good luck to everyone going out, should be a good early April chase.

Storms exploding over Missouri!

2010-04-04T15:53:00.000-06:00

A tornado watch has just been issued for Northern Missouri/parts of southern Iowa/Western Illinois. Supercells are expected to explode over this region for the next several hours and are already starting to do so! There are two groups of cells at this point but I believe the western most group will turn out to have the highest potential for tornado development.

In the last 45 minutes these storms have gone from a speck on the radar to nearly raging supercells. The northern most cell has had a hook and some small to modest rotation for the past while so I would expect a warning for that cell soon. Hopefully this doesn't become one big mess, but for now it appears they are staying somewhat separated.

Sorry Calculus, you're taking the bench

2010-04-03T01:58:00.001-06:00

Monday...Monday oh Monday oh Monday.

The first big chase day of the season is upon us. My feeling is that Monday is going to be an explosive day over parts of Kansas and Northern Missouri which has led me to the decision that I am skipping the last half of my school day on Monday to get out to central-ish Kansas. I don't care what NOAA says about the cap from hell, something is going to pop and when it does, it is going to be a monster. There is enough CIN (convective inhibition) to prevent an over crowding of cells, so the storm of the day is going to be rolling all by itself. There is some debate whether there is too much CIN to keep anything from happening, but I have confidence that atleast a few supercells will develop around late afternoon when the cap has decently eroded. The wind profiles are adequate enough to label this storm a tornado producer, so if I manage to get on a supe, then the chances are great that I will see a tornado.

*****CLICK ON PICTURES TO MAKE THEM BIGGER*****

500 mb shear ( look at north-central KS)

CAPE

CIN

Dewpoints (upper 60's)

Sorry about the small images, I'm too tired to figure out how to crop them. Where I am looking at is north central KS, which is a 5 hour drive at best but for this event it is 100% worth the drive and getting to miss calculus is always a bonus. I just thought I'd post my plans for this event so there it is and now I'm off to bed...after an all nighter Wednesday and then only 6 hours of sleep last night I am completely wiped.

One last thing, don't believe NOAA's "See Text" for this event, I don't know what they're looking at but from my perspective there will be at least a few tornadoes in Northern/Southern Kansas on this day (discounting the more favorable chase target in MO).

First big chase day of the year? (Wishcasting at its best)

2010-03-21T19:54:00.001-06:00

Before I get into the system the GFS has coming through in the first few days of April, I'm gonna deal the finishing blow on this March 5 gustnado. I took a grab from a video I took when the circulation was on the ground:

I tried to circle the area of what I thought was rotation in the cloud base, but because it's not a very clear grab I can't even tell for sure if it was even an area of rotation although at the time it was pretty convincing. I guess I'm counting it as a gustnado/downburst even though part of me is screaming it's a landspout. Another interesting point is it's a blurry image but notice how there are a few other apparent circulations on the radar. Right before this there was a more pronounced one but I guess I didn't get a picture of that. Oh well, it was a good first chase.

Ok now for that too-good-to-be-true system the GFS is putting out around April 1-3. I've been watching the models for this time period for a while now and although it seems to have some pretty good consistency, I'm still a little wary. It seems like every other run the GFS pushes an arctic air mass down along the front range and into kansas which pretty much kills all severe potential all the way down until southern Texas, which is way out of range for me. Assuming the recent runs hold true and this arctic air doesn't push that far south, then there is a high probablity that I will be chasing this system. It looks as if it's trying to put a tornadic set up along southern kansas which would most likely be my limit distance-wise. My only concern is it's only putting around 500-1000 CAPE in that area but massive amounts of CIN, but I'm guessing the CAPE values will go up substantially in the next few runs. Other than that, everything is lining up. It looks like there will be some juicy S/SE flow in that area supporting high 60 dewpoints (which will probably drop), some amazing wind shear, and temps around 80. So for now it's a yes but that might change. Another factor that might go into my decision is I'm getting back from vacation on April 1st so I wouldn't get much down time before I would have to head out again.

I guess I'll mention the massive amounts of CAPE (2000-3000) the GFS has been putting in central/southern Texas but because there's no way I'm going to be willing to drive that far, I don't want to drool over something that I can't chase.

When the GFS gets within 10 days of this system then I'll start posting some screens but for now I'm leaving it at that. Even If I end up not chasing this set up it's still a good sign that the season is finally starting to heat up!

Here's some pictures from the sunset from the March 5 chase, definately something I don't get to see here in Colorado.

Lookin' ahead

2010-03-13T22:33:00.002-07:00

To start out I'd like to defend myself and say that I've been trying to upload video of last week's chase but Youtube hasn't been cooperating. I'll probably try and post some pictures some time in the upcoming week.

So lately I've been trying to look ahead at the middle/late season possible chases instead of letting my SDS draw me toward these crappy early season setups. Speaking of which there's a decent system going through the Southern plains this Friday so that could be kind of interesting. Anyways, I've been making goals for this season and trying to make a chase zone area to put limits on how far I'm willing to drive. So far I've come up with something like this:

View Chasing Zone in a larger map

That is just a basic outline of my "zone". Ideally, I'd like to be able to push out a little bit past Salina, KS and a little bit more into northwestern Oklahoma/Texas, so that is what will likely happen. The darker area is where I will be doing most of my after-school chases (during late may) unless the system is big enough I take a day off of school.

Now on to my goals for how many tornadoes I want to see etc. Seeing how it's my first season chasing I don't have too high of hopes for seeing tornadoes, but I always like to push the envelope so I'm setting my goal at 3-5 (depending on how far east these early set-ups end up getting). I figure if I set the bar high then I won't feel like I can take a break. I also want to have 15+ successful chases. This means either a quality supercell/tornado, or simply a very photogenic storm. Keep in mind these numbers include my SLT tour that I am going on from June 13-18.

So yea, basically just another boring post until I can figure out this whole blogging thing and can actually get some quality chases done! I guess I'll tack on a list of my chasing gear and what I still need before the big season starts up.

What I already have/already have funding for:

Car: Subaru impreza either 2008/2010 depending on early/late season chases
Camera: Canon Digital Rebel XT
Camcorder: Sony Handycam DCR-SR47
Radar data: GRlevel3, Baron Mobile Threat Net
Internet card: Sprint 3G

What I still need to do/buy:
-Rain-X (Rain proofing my windows)
-Work a deal with a streaming company to let me stream even though I'm under 18
-Chase partners - this is a toughy...will probably have to roll solo this season
-Anemometer - this is a definate maybe, this is not a priority for this season but if something comes up then I'll grab one

That's my basic set-up I have going for this year. Even though it's been off to a slow start, I have faith that mother nature is just throwing us a curve ball for the early season and it will pick up soon.

Chase #1, gustnado/possible landspout

2010-03-06T21:29:00.004-07:00

For anybody that is even going to read my blog, sorry for the long delay inbetween posts.

I decided to chase the marginal set-up in Northwest Kansas yesterday, and although no severe weather (other than a possible landspout) occured, it was a good chase overall. I got out of school at 11 oclock and headed out towards Goodland, Kansas. The initial plan was to head a little north from there to get to my target area for storm initiation, but for some reason storms decided to fire around 50 miles to the southeast of this point and head NNE. I tried to bolt down there and get on the best of the line, but numerous radar indicated hail cores were blocking my path to what seemed to be rotation on the back side of the line. This confused me pretty badly because it was on the outflow side of the line but there was some pretty well pronounced radar indicated rotation back there so I went for it.
Anyways, after having to do some back tracking after missing my exit off of I-70 (which ended up putting me on a terrible dirt road), I finally found myself heading east on a decent concrete road which I'm pretty sure was Highway 24. I haven't ever done a core punch, or even done a real storm chase before, so as you can probably imagine this was extremely stressful. Most of the time, the only thing that kept me on the road was following the fellow chaser in front of me. After almost being pushed off the road by a strong gust of wind (probably a downburst) and a few drainage ditches, I was pretty much having a panic attack.
Skipping a few more mistakes, about 15 minutes later I found myself on the other side of the core with some nickel (estimated? maybe bigger) sized hail pounding my car. After getting away from the hail I decided to stop and take some pictures and this is when I found myself staring at a circulation on the ground. It was a definate circulation, but after the panic of the core punch I wasn't thinking straight so I didnt get any decent video/pictures of this. After studying the pictures I have decided it was maybe a small landspout, maybe a small gustnado, but probably a downburst that just confused the crap out of me. You decide for yourself:
(Click in images for bigger version)

This is what it looked like from where I was standing

Same as first picture but contrast increased so you can see the tube

Normal, but zoomed in

Same picture as pic #3, just did some contrast/brightness changes to bring out the shape

So, I have pretty much decided it was a landspout tornado but I am not counting it under my tornadoes because I didn't realize this at the time and just though it was a mere downburst. Oh well.

After the landspout, nothing much exciting happened other than an interesting conversation with some farmers whos tractor was destroyed in the Hill City tornado a few years back.

At first, I was pretty upset last night because of my lack of concern for safety on my first ever chase in the driver's seat, but looking back on it I am giving myself some credit for having enough luck to see the possible landspout.

Thanks for reading my first blog post and I promise next time I'll try and make it shorter.

Oh yea, I'll be posting my forecasts from now on.

The Blog/My goals

2010-02-01T16:53:00.002-07:00

So I thought for my first ever blog post I'd just summarize what this blog is going to be for, what my meteorology related hopes/goals are for the year 2010, and what meteorology and storm chasing mean to me on a personal level.

On this blog, I will be posting my Storm Chasing adventures and my meteoroligical findings/experiences in each. Also if there is any interesting severe weather news, I will be posting that and reflecting on it. This blog is as much for sharing my experiences and reflecting on them as it is for personal growth and learning. I hope that in sharing what I have learned and experienced (which isn't much thus far) I can maybe help somebody else in the pursuit of their dreams and at the same time help myself achieve mine.

The year 2010 is going to be my biggest one yet. Not only will I be taking my ACT's, applying for college, and applying for my first ever "real" job, but I will also be diving head first into my first year of meteorology and storm chasing, searching for opportunities to help me succeed in the future and in the present. I am "coming out of my shell", attempting to put myself in the spotlight in a search to learn more and expand my horizons. Due to the fact that I have parents who are willing to run with me every step of the way, I am able to push harder than I would be able to otherwise. This year I already plan on attending the National Chaser Convention, going on a Storm Chasing Tour with Silver Lining Tours, chasing on a personal level throughout Colorado and other states (as far as I feel comfortable and as far as my parents feel comfortable with letting me go), as well as possibly joining more experienced individuals on a couple chases. This year will have to be one of extreme personal growth and maturation past what I have achieved this school year, and I believe I am up to the task.

I thought I'd vaguely touch on what chasing means to me on a personal, deeper level in order to reinforce that this isn't simply a thrill-seeking hobby for me. Meteorology is a future for me, a knowing that if I try hard enough I can succeed. It is my passion, the center of every single hope and dream I have for my future. I have always been a person who likes to take curiosity into the real-deal, up in person experience, and that is what storm chasing does for me. It takes everything I have learned through my obsessive studying of meteorology and severe weather and puts it in true perspective. Although I haven't had much opportunity to truly do this yet, it is what I plan on doing throughout the spring/summer of 2010. I have a bizarre passion for meteorology and chasing that I haven't felt for anything before and I know that if I use this passion to learn and progress further into the field I can have great success.

Well that probably went on longer than I meant to for my first post, but I hope it helps whoever is reading my blog to better understand what meteorology means to me, and what my goals for this blog are.